建信期货油脂日报-20260310

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: March 10, 2026 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - P2605: Previous settlement price 9148, opening price 9384, highest price 9788, lowest price 9360, closing price 9720, up 572, up 6.25%, trading volume 892943, open interest 385075, open interest change +9545 [7] - P2609: Previous settlement price 9152, opening price 9320, highest price 9792, lowest price 9312, closing price 9632, up 480, up 5.24%, trading volume 155905, open interest 108970, open interest change +4155 [7] - Y2605: Previous settlement price 8406, opening price 8500, highest price 8910, lowest price 8466, closing price 8672, up 266, up 3.16%, trading volume 936143, open interest -656575, open interest change -12368 [7] - Y2609: Previous settlement price 8368, opening price 8410, highest price 8818, lowest price 8410, closing price 8600, up 232, up 2.77%, trading volume 254068, open interest 277328, open interest change +12211 [7] - O1605: Previous settlement price 9696, opening price 9760, highest price 10167, lowest price 9728, closing price 9954, up 363, up 3.78%, trading volume 362000, open interest 273150, open interest change -19239 [7] - O1609: Previous settlement price 6556, opening price 9636, highest price 10101, lowest price 9626, closing price 9832, up 303, up 3.18%, trading volume 72485, open interest 56512, open interest change -4971 [7] Quotes - Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quote: June - September triple - rapeseed oil 09 + 250, single - rapeseed oil 09 + 450 [7] - East China market soybean oil basis price: Single - soybean oil: Spot: Y05 + 210; Fixed price 9110 yuan/ton [7] - Guangdong trader palm oil basis quote: 24 - degree 05 + 0 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoint - The intraday trend of the three major oils followed the fluctuations of foreign crude oil. The current market of the oil and fat sector is mainly driven by the game between "energy - attribute support" and "fundamental pressure". The main contracts of the three major oils hit the daily limit during the session, showing a strong performance of rising prices and increasing trading volumes. The core driver is the sharp rise in international crude oil prices. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Israel's raid on Iran has pushed up crude oil prices, and the linkage between vegetable oil and crude oil has significantly strengthened. The rise is more of a short - term pulse driven by events rather than a sustainable market due to fundamental improvement. After the geopolitical sentiment cools down, the crude oil premium will fade, and the price center is likely to move down. Attention should be paid to the progress of US biodiesel policies and the trend of international crude oil prices [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of March 3, speculative funds held a net long position of 198,902 contracts in CBOT soybean futures and options, an increase of 147,001 contracts or 13% from the previous week, and have increased their positions for six consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 200,000 contracts [9] - As of March 3, speculative funds held a net long position of 75,509 contracts in CBOT soybean oil futures and options, an increase of 12,197 contracts or 51% from the previous week, and have increased their positions for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative net purchase of 65,000 contracts. The net long position has reached the highest level since the week of November 29, 2022 [9][10] Group 4: Data Overview - As of March 3, speculative funds held a net long position of 62,087 contracts in CBOT soybean meal futures and options, an increase of 30,392 contracts from the previous week, and have increased their positions for six consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 100,000 contracts [19] - Statistics Canada's sowing intention report shows that the rapeseed planting area in Canada in 2026 will reach 21.8 million acres, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. However, analysts point out that considering the recent sharp rise in rapeseed prices, the surge in fertilizer costs, and changes in the international trade environment, farmers are re - evaluating the sowing structure, and the rapeseed planting area may be higher than the statistical forecast [19]