大越期货豆粕早报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal (M2605): It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2950 - 3010. The market is currently in a moderately bullish oscillatory pattern, influenced by factors such as the US - China trade agreement and South American soybean harvest weather. The basis is bullish, but inventory and main - position data are bearish [9]. - Soybeans (A2605): It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4720 - 4820. The market will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, affected by factors like the US - China trade negotiation and South American soybean production. The basis and inventory are bearish, while the price trend on the disk is bullish [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Soybean Meal: It is in a moderately bullish oscillatory pattern, with the US - China trade agreement and South American soybean harvest weather being the main influencing factors. The basis is positive, inventory is increasing, the price on the disk is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main - position short orders are increasing [9]. - Soybeans: It will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, affected by the US - China trade negotiation and South American soybean production. The basis is negative, inventory is decreasing, the price on the disk is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main - position short orders are increasing [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on US - China tariff negotiation is short - term bullish for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The short - term US soybean market is moderately bullish and oscillatory. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills will remain at a relatively high level in March. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profit leads to a low expectation of pig restocking, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal in March. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possible weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary US - China trade agreement, the soybean meal market is short - term moderately bullish and oscillatory [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary US - China trade agreement is short - term bullish for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will remain at a relatively high level in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions. - Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price. - Bearish factors: The good harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14][15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From February 27 to March 9, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary: From March 2 to March 9, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed an upward trend [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From February 26 to March 9, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed, with some fluctuations in the quantity of warehouse receipts [20]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide specific content about position data. 3.6 Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2016 to 2025, the harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of global soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [32]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2016 to 2025, the harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. 3.7 Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress - 2023/24 Argentina Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress in 2023/24 is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [34]. - 2024 US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress: The planting, growth, and harvest progress in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38]. - 2024/25 Brazil and Argentina Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress in 2024/25 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [39][40][41]. - 2025/26 Brazil and Argentina Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress in 2025/26 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [42][43]. 3.8 USDA Recent Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From July 2025 to February 2026, the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean export, and pressing volume of US soybeans changed, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans is also reported [44]. 3.9 Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased from a low level and increased year - on - year. - The soybean inventory of oil mills increased, and the soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills increased from a low level, and the soybean meal output in February decreased slightly year - on - year. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills decreased slightly, and the short - term stocking demand weakened. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the oscillation of US soybeans, and the disk profit fluctuated slightly. - The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. - The pig price continued to decline recently, and the piglet price fluctuated slightly. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. - The loss of domestic pig - farming profit expanded. - The pig - to - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio decreased to a low level [45][47][50][51][53][55][57][59][61][63][65]