大越期货燃料油早报-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, fuel oil supply from the Middle East is restricted, intensifying concerns about recent market supply disruptions. The market structures of Asian high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have further strengthened, and the spot price spread of fuel oil has reached a high. Terminal marine fuel demand is strong, and buyers are stocking up before short - term price increases. The market is in a supply shortage state. [3] - Middle East tensions have worsened, some oil - producing countries are starting to cut production passively, market sentiment is high, and enterprises are hoarding. Fuel oil prices are expected to rise in the short term, with high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil expected to hit the daily limit today. The FU2605 contract is expected to run in the 4500 - 4549 range, and the LU2605 contract in the 5000 - 5032 range. [3] - The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Futures Market: The previous FU and LU主力合约期货 prices were 3888 and 4376 respectively, and the current values are 4437 and 4999, with increases of 549 (14.12%) and 623 (14.24%) respectively. The previous FU and LU basis were 578 and 884, and the current values are 1581 and 1865, with increases of 1002.53 (173.31%) and 981 (111%) respectively. [5] - Spot Market: The previous prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel, Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel, Singapore high - sulfur fuel, Singapore low - sulfur fuel, Middle - East high - sulfur fuel, and Singapore diesel were 790, 850, 646.6, 765.5, 548.92, and 1110.92 respectively. The current values are 1110, 1200, 877.87, 989.37, 772.77, and 1129.41, with increases of 320 (40.51%), 350 (41.18%), 231.27 (35.77%), 223.87 (29.24%), 223.85 (40.78%), and 18.49 (1.66%) respectively. [6] 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: Middle East tensions and poor channel traffic [4] - Likely to be Bearish: The Trump administration's TACO situation and upstream crude oil being under pressure [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has restricted fuel oil supply from the Middle East, and terminal marine fuel demand is strong, with the market in a supply shortage state [3] - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 578 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 700 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3] - Market Trend: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3] - Main Position: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions decreasing; low - sulfur main positions are short, changing from long to short [3] 5. Spread Data - A chart of the high - and low - sulfur futures price spread is provided, but specific data is not detailed [9] 6. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on March 4, 2026, was 2574.9 million barrels, an increase of 187 million barrels. Historical inventory data from December 24, 2025, to March 4, 2026, is also provided. [3][7]