大越期货原油早报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that after the downward impact of news on oil prices, they will still maintain an upward trend. It suggests investors control their positions and try to enter the market with long - positions at low prices in the 660 - 710 range for SC2604, while waiting for opportunities to enter short - positions at high prices in the long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Crude Oil 2604 Analysis: - Fundamentals: Trump predicts the end of the Middle - East war, but Iran shows no sign of backing down. G7 is ready to take measures but doesn't commit to using emergency reserves. Trump will exempt some sanctions to ensure oil supply. The chaos in the Middle - East has disrupted the global oil supply chain, and Saudi Arabia has started to cut production [3]. - Basis: On March 9, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $125.31 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $106.16 per barrel, with a basis of 62.85 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending February 27 increased by 5.647 million barrels (expected 2.2 million barrels), EIA inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels (expected 2.305 million barrels), and Cushing area inventory increased by 1.564 million barrels. As of March 6, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 2.557 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3]. - Main Position: As of March 3, the main long - positions in WTI and Brent crude oil both decreased [3]. - Expectation: Trump's remarks on the Middle - East war have hit oil prices, but due to Iran's strong attitude, low shipping efficiency, and supply shortages, oil prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to try long - positions at low prices in the 660 - 710 range for SC2604 and wait for short - position opportunities at high prices in the long - term [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump's Statements: Trump said the U.S. military action against Iran will end soon, was disappointed with Iran's new leader, and will lift some sanctions to lower oil prices. He also threatened Cuba and said he would transport 100 million barrels of oil from Venezuela [5]. - Measures to Cope with Rising Oil Prices: The Trump administration is considering options such as releasing emergency reserves, suspending the federal gasoline tax, and having the Treasury intervene in the crude oil futures market to deal with rising oil and gasoline prices [5]. - Production Cuts in the Middle - East: Saudi Arabia has started to cut oil production due to the near - shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Other OPEC countries such as the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq have also cut production [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: The Strait of Hormuz has poor shipping conditions, and the Middle - East situation has deteriorated [6]. - Bearish Factors: Trump intends to end the war quickly [6]. - Market Driver: Short - term focus on geopolitical changes, and wait for the situation to ease in the long - term to enter the market for a reversal [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have all increased, with increases of 4.01 (4.93%), 6.35 (8.51%), 41.70 (6.68%), and 3.84 (4.68%) respectively [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, and Dubai crude oil have increased, while the price of Shengli crude oil has decreased. The increases are 6.87 (8.46%), 6.35 (8.51%), 8.79 (10.16%), and 8.77 (10.15%) respectively, and the decrease of Shengli crude oil is 0.82 (1.02%) [9]. - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventories have both increased in the week ending February 27, with API inventory increasing by 5.647 million barrels and EIA inventory increasing by 3.475 million barrels [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of March 3, the net long - position decreased by 562 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of March 3, the net long - position decreased by 35358 [19].