中债指数统计及分析月报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the bond market showed an overall recovery. The ChinaBond New Composite Index, which represents the domestic bond market, rose 0.39% since the beginning of the year. Long - term interest - rate bonds had better returns, and the ChinaBond Preferred Investment - Grade Credit Bond Index had a return of 0.37% since the start of the year, slightly better than other representative broad - based credit bond indices. The ChinaBond AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index had a slightly higher return than other representative theme indices [6]. - The yields of government bonds at most key tenors decreased slightly, and long - term interest - rate bond indices performed well. The yields of credit bonds of various grades were slightly differentiated, and the overall wealth index return of the credit bond market was positive. The spreads between various industries and government bonds remained basically unchanged, and the wealth index returns of all industries increased [7]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 2026 Bond Market Review - The ChinaBond New Composite Index rose 0.39% since the beginning of 2026. Long - term interest - rate bonds had good returns. The ChinaBond Preferred Investment - Grade Credit Bond Index had a 0.37% return, and the ChinaBond AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index had a relatively high return [6]. - The yields of government bonds at most key tenors decreased slightly in January, and long - term interest - rate bond indices performed well. Credit bond yields were slightly differentiated, with positive overall wealth index returns. Industry - government bond spreads were stable, and industry wealth index returns increased [7]. - The trading volume of the domestic RMB bond market decreased slightly compared with the previous month. The monthly standard deviation of the daily return of the ChinaBond New Composite Wealth Index was about 0.047%, a 0.010 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The market trading volume was about 26.06 trillion yuan [13]. 3.2 This Month's Interest - Rate Bond Market Review - At the end of the month, government bond yields decreased slightly at key tenors such as 1, 5, 7, and 10 years, and slightly increased at other key tenors (including 30 years). The term spread of government bonds and the spread between China Development Bank bonds and government bonds remained basically unchanged [22]. - The ChinaBond Aggregate Index's wealth index rose 0.36%. Medium - and long - term government bond indices had slightly better returns. The ChinaBond Preferred Investment Government Bond Index performed slightly better than the ChinaBond Preferred Investment Policy - Financial Bond Index [28]. - Long - term interest - rate bond indices performed well this month. The top 5 interest - rate bond indices in terms of monthly return included the ChinaBond 10 - Year Government Bond Index with a return of 0.66% and a duration of 7.63 years [32][33]. 3.3 This Month's Credit Bond Market Review - Credit bond yields fluctuated slightly, and the overall wealth index return of the credit bond market was positive. The ChinaBond Credit Bond Aggregate Index's wealth index rose 0.30% [34]. - The spreads of high - grade credit bonds were slightly differentiated. Taking 3 - year credit bonds as an example, the spread of AAA - rated credit bonds remained basically unchanged, while the spreads of other grades narrowed slightly. The spreads between the yield curves of ChinaBond enterprise bonds of four grades (AAA, AAA -, AA +, AA) and government bonds were at the 43%, 35%, 32%, and 29% percentiles of the past 3 years respectively [37]. - The spreads between various industries and government bonds remained basically unchanged, and the wealth index returns of all industries increased. The ChinaBond Real Estate Industry Credit Bond Index had a return of about 0.44%, performing the best [40]. - The return of credit bond indices was positive, and the commercial bank secondary capital bond index performed well. The top 5 credit bond indices in terms of monthly return included the ChinaBond State - owned Large - scale Commercial Banks and Joint - stock Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond Index with a return of 0.50% and a duration of 3.51 years [45][46]. - There were no new default issuers this month [47]. 3.4 Appendix: Correlation of Returns of Major Bond Types - The report presents the correlation coefficients of the daily wealth index returns of various bond indices in the past 3 months as of January 30, 2026, including the ChinaBond Preferred Investment Government Bond Index, ChinaBond Preferred Investment Policy - Financial Bond Index, etc. [48] 3.5 Awards - The institution has won multiple awards, such as being the "Best Fixed - Income Index Provider" for six consecutive years (2020 - 2025) by The Asset, the "Best ETF Index Provider" in 2025 by The Asset, etc. [51]