原油成品油早报-20260310

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the conflict between the US and Iran has significantly escalated, and the situation has deteriorated more rapidly than market expectations, having a substantial impact on crude oil supply. The key issue is the long - term interruption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to preventive production cuts in Middle Eastern oil fields, with an unpredictable duration. If the current situation persists for two weeks, the scope of oil production interruptions in Gulf countries will expand significantly. If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not improve next week, the oil price will break through the upper limit, with the target price rising to $100 - $120 per barrel [5]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Oil Price Data - From March 2 to March 6, 2026, WTI crude oil rose from $71.23 to $90.90, an increase of $9.89; BRENT crude oil rose from $77.74 to $92.69, an increase of $7.28; DUBAI crude oil rose from $76.53 to $99.14, an increase of $9.83. Other oil - related products also showed varying degrees of price changes [2]. b. Daily News - Israeli Defense Minister Katz claimed that the Israeli military killed Iranian Supreme Leader's military secretary Abu - Kasim Babaiyan, but the Iranian side has not confirmed this [2]. - The US has cancelled the navigation warning for commercial ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, and another maritime warning against Iran has expired [3]. - US media reported that Trump's options for striking Iran include sending special forces to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities [3]. - Iraq's current daily oil production is about 1.7 - 1.8 million barrels, down from about 4.3 million barrels per day before the conflict [3]. - The Israeli Energy Minister said they might bomb Iranian refineries and power stations [3]. - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian military said they would expand the scale and intensity of retaliatory attacks in the next few hours and days [3]. - The US government has discussed the possibility of seizing Iran's strategic oil export terminal, Kharg Island, which accounts for about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports [4]. - The New York Times reported that Iran still retains 50% of its missile program's strength, and Iran is prepared for at least six more months of war [4]. - Trump said there is currently no plan to deploy ground troops in Iran but might increase the military budget to $1.5 trillion and consider expanding the scope of strikes [5]. - The Israeli Defense Forces have attacked Iranian oil infrastructure, launching air strikes on 30 Iranian oil tanks [5]. - Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has implemented preventive measures, reducing crude oil production and refining scale due to Iranian attacks [5]. - Saudi Arabia has warned Iran that it will take retaliatory measures if attacked again [5]. - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have hit a Marshall Islands - flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz [5]. c. Inventory - In the week of February 27, US crude oil exports decreased by 316,000 barrels per day to 3.997 million barrels per day [5]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 600 barrels to 13.696 million barrels per day [5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.475 million barrels to 439 million barrels, a 0.8% increase [5]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.02 million barrels per day, a 4.24% increase compared to the same period last year [5]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels [5]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.324 million barrels per day, a decrease of 335,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5].