异动点评：地缘情绪降温，盘面“挤升水”等待现货指引

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - As of the afternoon close on March 10, 2026, the freight futures price of container shipping on the European route dropped by 13.92%, with the main contract at 1848.9 points and a daily reduction of 3,397 lots. The core reason is that there are signs of easing in the US-Iran war, the decline in crude oil has cooled the market sentiment, and the market has followed the decline in crude oil, squeezing out the current "premium" in the futures price and waiting for the guidance of the spot price [1]. - After the futures price fell today, the main 04 contract has squeezed out most of the premium. It is expected that the subsequent price will follow the spot freight situation, and the overall volatility will gradually decrease. It is advisable to wait for the market sentiment to cool further and then focus on the long - order layout opportunities for the peak - season contracts, while being vigilant against the recurrence of geopolitical sentiment and the possible recession after a sharp rise in oil prices [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Driving Analysis 1: Geopolitical Tension Eases and the European Route and Crude Oil Decline in Tandem - Previously, due to the de facto "shutdown" of the Strait of Hormuz and the continuous jump in VLCC freight rates, oil and gas facilities in multiple Middle Eastern countries were affected, and crude oil prices rose unilaterally. The market panic reached its peak yesterday, with the intraday maximum increase in external oil prices approaching 30%. Subsequently, President Trump said in an interview that the US military action against Iran would end "soon", and G7 + IEA will hold a meeting on March 10 to discuss whether to release oil reserves. The expectation of geopolitical easing has increased significantly, the market panic has cooled significantly, and international oil prices have plunged [3]. - Historically, the correlation between container shipping futures on the European route and crude oil has been low because fuel costs account for a relatively small proportion of long - distance shipping costs, and the core pricing of freight depends on supply - demand fundamentals. However, recently, due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the sentiment of the shutdown of oil transportation has spread to the global shipping supply chain. The market trading focus has shifted from fundamental supply - demand to channel safety, and the futures price trends of the European route and crude oil have shown a high degree of positive correlation in the short term. Therefore, after the sharp decline in crude oil overnight, the sentiment in the European route market has cooled synchronously, resulting in a significant gap - down opening of the market today [3]. Driving Analysis 2: Uncertainty in the Implementation of Freight Price Increases in the Off - season, and the Market Squeezes the "Premium" and Waits for Spot Guidance - As previously deduced, the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the near - term capacity of the European route is difficult to assess, and its transmission result may not necessarily be positive. The potential impact lies in the gradual transmission of capacity loss and port chaos, which will ultimately affect the peak - season shipping schedules from May to July. Affected by the suspension of the Middle East route, two large ships (21,000 tons and 19,000 tons respectively) have been transferred from the Middle East to the European route in late March, significantly increasing the short - term supply pressure [4]. - On the demand side, as downstream manufacturing enterprises gradually resume work and production, the recovery rhythm of cargo volume is relatively moderate, and there are no signs of over - booking and cargo rejection. From the market sentiment perspective, shipowners are expected to issue a new round of price increase letters soon. Currently, the validity period of MSC's price increase letters has been compressed from once a month to once every half - month or even once a week, and the impact of subsequent price increase letters on the market sentiment is expected to be dull [4]. - In the current relatively balanced off - season supply - demand situation, it is difficult to assess the implementation of freight price increases. On one hand, the Middle East war is undetermined, and the Strait of Hormuz has not reopened. It is only a short - term cooling of market sentiment, and there are still great uncertainties in future channel safety. On the other hand, the current "sufficient" supply and the "expected" future chaos create a tug - of - war, making it difficult to assess the subsequent freight trends. If the Strait of Hormuz/Mandeb Strait remains blocked, the probability of successful price increases by shipping companies will increase significantly. If the war eases and the channel safety risks are alleviated, shipowners may lower prices again to increase the loading rate in the off - season when the cargo volume has not fully recovered. Therefore, in the current off - season, as the market sentiment cools, the market has temporarily returned to rationality. After including the fuel surcharge (the current booking price converted to the index is about 1,700 - 1,800 points), the market has fallen sharply today, and the overall valuation has dropped from a significant premium to near par, waiting for the guidance of the actual freight price [4].