苹果产业日报-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, the transaction of high - and low - quality apples in production areas is significantly differentiated. High - quality apples remain stable and firm, while the general supply of fruit farmers is slightly weak. Traders have a strong willingness to purchase high - quality goods. It is expected that the transaction of high - quality apples in the western region will be active in the short term, with overall stable prices and a continued polarization trend [2] - The shipment situation in production areas varies, generally stronger in the west and weaker in the east. As of March 4, 2026, the inventory in apple cold storage in the main production areas across the country was 527.53 tons, a decrease of 25.39 tons from the previous week, and the inventory removal speed has accelerated. In the Shandong production area, the number of traders inspecting goods in cold storage is acceptable, but the transaction after inquiry is average, and some fruit farmers are willing to lower prices. In the Shaanxi production area, the number of traders has increased, and some have moved from the Gansu production area to Shaanxi to find high - quality apples. The price of high - quality apples in the Yan'an production area is slightly firmer, but the overall transaction is still average [2] - In the sales areas, the post - festival market sales are stable, the market arrival volume is low, and the shipment has slowed down. However, due to the influence of low inventory, low high - quality fruit rate, and delivery logic, the price of the short - term apple main contract fluctuates more violently [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 10,303 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 112,571 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7,187 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 9,223 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 215 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week. The spot price of apples in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week [2] - The spot price of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - second - grade fruit farmers' goods) is 4.2 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week. The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 first - grade goods) is 3.7 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons. The apple orchard area in the whole country is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares [2] - The total inventory of national apple cold storage is 527.53 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25.39 tons. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 [2] - The monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous month [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year monthly export amount of apples is 30.7%, an increase of 14.5% from the previous month. The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 million US dollars, an increase of 657,409 million US dollars from the previous month [2] - The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged apples (80) is 0.3 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.69 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.52 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 yuan/kg [2] - The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 6.88 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg [2] - The average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Jiangmen Wholesale Market in Guangdong is 9.6 vehicles, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 vehicles. The average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Xiaqiao Wholesale Market in Guangdong is 12.4 vehicles, a week - on - week decrease of 2.85 vehicles. The average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Chalong Wholesale Market in Guangdong is 18.4 vehicles, a week - on - week decrease of 4.85 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 38.51%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 38.56%, a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [2]