白糖产业日报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic market shows that as of the end of February, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales decreased by 891,000 tons year-on-year, the sales rate dropped by 11.50 percentage points year-on-year, the single - month sugar production in February increased by 72,200 tons year-on-year, the single - month sugar sales decreased by 60,700 tons year-on-year, and the industrial inventory increased by 375,200 tons year-on-year. Although Guangxi's sugar sales rate is low, single - month production is higher than last year, and sales are lower than last year, with an overall increase in industrial inventory. However, due to external factors and the current sugar price being near the cost, it is expected that the medium - to - long - term price center will move up relatively [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,409 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan; the main contract position is 409,849 hands, a decrease of 28,178 hands; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 15,930, an increase of 984; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 117,114 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,120, a decrease of 1,144 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,164 yuan/ton, an increase of 109 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,083 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,279 yuan/ton; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,173 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Brazil's total sugar exports in the month are 2.2297 million tons, an increase of 212,200 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,281 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,362 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan; the monthly import volume of sugar is 580,000 tons, an increase of 140,000 tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 4.92 million tons, an increase of 580,000 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 1.5506 million tons, an increase of 665,800 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Yunnan is 532,000 tons, an increase of 250,600 tons; the cumulative output of cane sugar in Guangxi is 4.029 million tons, an increase of 2.0871 million tons; the cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan is 984,100 tons, an increase of 591,800 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 359,040 tons, an increase of 228,740 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.3421 million tons, an increase of 296,400 tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 14.12%, an increase of 3.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 14.11%, an increase of 3.23 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 9.31%, an increase of 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 9.85%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat data shows that in the first week of March, Brazil exported 444,600 tons of sugar, with a daily average export volume of 88,900 tons, an 8% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of 96,550 tons in March of the previous year. The total export volume in March of the previous year was 1.8344 million tons. The ICE raw sugar futures rose on Monday as the conflict between the US - Israel and Iran disrupted oil supply, driving up crude oil prices and raising concerns that Brazilian sugarcane processing plants would reduce sugar production and increase ethanol production. The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on ICE closed up 0.49 cents or 3.50% at 14.59 cents per pound [2]