合成橡胶产业日报-20260310

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support for cis - butadiene rubber continues to be strong due to the ongoing impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, and the strong performance of the domestic butadiene segment. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants remains high. After the Spring Festival, the downstream terminal's提货 and procurement demand gradually followed up. With the significant increase in the mainstream supply price, the negotiation focus rose and the transactions increased significantly. The inventory of production enterprises decreased significantly, while that of trading enterprises increased slightly. - It is expected that the inventory on the spot side will still decline significantly under the influence of the maintenance of some plants in late March. - The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, and most enterprises have returned to the normal level, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the short - term situation is unstable, and the order shipment resistance in the Middle - East region still exists, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. - Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate violently in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 14,935 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The position volume of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 24,717, a decrease of 9,862 compared with the previous period. - The synthetic rubber 4 - 5 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 20,350 tons, an increase of 720 tons compared with the previous period. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 15,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,650 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 15,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,650 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai was 15,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,600 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 16,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The basis of synthetic rubber was - 335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The Brent crude oil price was 98.96 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 6.27 US dollars/barrel compared with the previous period. - The WTI crude oil price was 94.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.87 US dollars/barrel compared with the previous period. - The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 1,000 US dollars/ton, an increase of 90 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period. - The CFR Japan naphtha price was 776.38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period. - The CFR China butadiene intermediate price was 1,800 US dollars/ton, an increase of 300 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period. - The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 16,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The butadiene production capacity in the current week was 15.93 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons/week compared with the previous period. - The butadiene capacity utilization rate in the current week was 76.28%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points compared with the previous period. - The butadiene port inventory at the end of the week was 39,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons compared with the previous period. - The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 54.58%, an increase of 2.89 percentage points compared with the previous period. [2] 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.99 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons compared with the previous period. - The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in the current week was 81.62%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points compared with the previous period. - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber in the current week was - 1,424 yuan/ton, a decrease of 965 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 4.34 million tons, a decrease of 1.01 million tons compared with the previous period. - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 34,400 tons, a decrease of 10,750 tons compared with the previous period. - The trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 9,020 tons, an increase of 700 tons compared with the previous period. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.03%, an increase of 39.47 percentage points compared with the previous period. - The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.9%, an increase of 36.73 percentage points compared with the previous period. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces compared with the previous period. - The monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces compared with the previous period. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.79 days, a decrease of 1.25 days compared with the previous period. - The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 43.1 days, a decrease of 0.99 days compared with the previous period. [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. - As of March 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 18.80%. [2]