瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand, with the downstream resumption of work driving continuous destocking of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 163,000 yuan/ton, up 1,940 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 108,347 hands, up 2,579 hands; the position of the main contract is 332,517 hands, up 1,846 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 240 yuan/ton, up 12,060 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 37,019 hands/ton, up 158 hands [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 158,500 yuan/ton, up 3,750 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 155,250 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 4,500 yuan/ton, up 1,810 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,505 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 14,350 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 7,175 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,520 tons, down 5,950 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons; the monthly export volume is 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 168,000 MWh, down 33,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 51,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 111,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 202,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium is 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 181,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 196,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 45%, down 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 55%, up 55 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 1,041,000 vehicles, down 677,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 945,000 vehicles, down 765,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 40.28%, down 7.65 percentage points; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 945,000 vehicles, up 1,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, up 152,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 87.22%, down 10.27 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 97.53%, down 1.19 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total subscription position is 102,263 contracts, up 842 contracts; the total put position is 95,498 contracts, down 2,071 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 93.38%, down 2.8173 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money IV is 0.77%, up 0.1096 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In February, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, and the core CPI rose 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [2]. - The development of fuel - cell vehicles is slow due to the superposition of four bottlenecks: technology, cost, supporting facilities, and market [2]. - At CATL's 2025 annual report performance interpretation meeting, the management said that the lithium mine in Yichun, Jiangxi, obtained the mining license at the end of last year and is in the process of resuming production; the Snowway lithium mine project was in the pre - preparation stage last year, and once it enters the mining stage, the benefits will be considerable [2]. Market Analysis - The main lithium carbonate contract fluctuated strongly, with the position increasing month - on - month. The spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis strengthened compared with the previous day [2]. - On the fundamental side, overseas mines in the raw material end are holding prices and reluctant to sell, and smelters' inquiry sentiment has increased. The supply of lithium carbonate will continue to grow, and the demand side has recovered significantly after the festival, with the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory increasing [2]. - In terms of options, the put - call ratio of the position is 93.38%, down 2.8173% month - on - month, and the option market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility rising [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are near the 0 axis, and the red bar is slightly converging [2].