沪铜产业日报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a strengthening basis. The copper industry is in a stage of rising supply and demand and inventory accumulation, with overall positive industry expectations. In terms of options, the market sentiment is bullish, and implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is near the 0 - axis and the red bars are slightly contracting. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 101,520 yuan/ton, up 1,330 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 13,120 dollars/ton, up 166 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 230 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract was 194,900 lots, down 4,957 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 75,319 lots, down 2,433 lots. LME copper inventory was 294,250 tons, up 9,925 tons; SHFE cathode copper inventory was 425,145 tons, up 33,616 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants were 13,125 tons, up 1,650 tons; SHFE cathode copper warrants were 319,655 tons, down 2,856 tons; COMEX copper inventory was 596,438 short tons, down 1,500 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 101,405 yuan/ton, up 1,925 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 101,535 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 43 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 44 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 115 yuan/ton, up 595 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 67.22 dollars/ton, down 22.36 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The copper smelter's TC was - 56.05 dollars/kiloton, down 5.62 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 91,810 yuan/metal ton, up 1,150 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 92,510 yuan/metal ton, up 1,150 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the north, it was 1,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 315,793.95 tons, down 124,206.05 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 67,190 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 82,050 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid from Jiangxi Copper was 1,080 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction was 6,395.02 billion yuan, up 791.13 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 82,788.14 billion yuan, up 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,807,345.5 million pieces, up 415,345.5 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 30%, down 4.82%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 35.34%, down 0.71%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 24.44%, up 0.0189; the at - the - money option call - to - put ratio was 1.32, down 0.0388 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In February, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, and the core CPI rose 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months. The Iran conflict severely hit the eurozone's economic growth expectations, and investor confidence declined significantly. The eurozone Sentix confidence index in March fell 7.3 points to - 3.1. US President Trump said that the war was basically over, was considering controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and it was too early to talk about seizing Iranian oil [2]