铂钯金期货日报-20260310

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint - The platinum and palladium markets show obvious fundamental differentiation. Geopolitical risks and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are short - term disturbing factors for both. Platinum has a long - term tight supply logic, with a continuous shortage in the market, while palladium has a weak medium - term fundamental outlook. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have increased, and the performance of US CPI inflation data should be closely watched. If oil prices continue to rise, platinum and palladium may face pressure. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 562.55 yuan/gram, up 23.00; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 423.55 yuan/gram, up 16.35. The platinum main - contract position was 10387.00 hands, down 277.00; the palladium main - contract position was up 90.00 hands [2]. - Spot Market: The spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) was up 20.20, and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 408.00, up 24.00. The platinum main - contract basis was - 2.80, down; the palladium main - contract basis was - 15.55, up 7.65 [2]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly) were 9966.00, down 243.00; palladium's were 3003.00, down 342.00. The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 5.00. The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium was expected to be 261.60 tons, down 27.00 [2]. - Macro Data: The US dollar index was 98.71, down 0.24; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was down 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 25.50, down 3.99 [2]. 3.2. Industry News - US President Trump said the war with Iran might end soon. The G7 finance ministers discussed not releasing strategic oil reserves. Russian President Putin and US President Trump talked about the Middle - East situation related to Iran and the negotiation process of the Ukraine issue. The energy price surge is reshaping European interest - rate trading. The CME "FedWatch" shows the probabilities of the Fed's interest - rate cuts at different times [2]. 3.3. Market Performance - During today's trading session, platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rebounded significantly. The platinum 2606 contract rose 4.26% to 562.55 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract rose 4.02% to 423.55 yuan/gram [2]. 3.4. Fundamental Analysis - Platinum: The long - term supply is tight. In 2026, global platinum supply is expected to increase slightly. Although demand is dragged down by the decline in fuel - vehicle production and the slowdown of platinum - palladium substitution, the increase in industrial demand from the glass - industry expansion and the growth of platinum coin and bar investment demand will push the total annual demand to 237 tons, resulting in a shortage of about 7 tons and supporting the platinum price [2]. - Palladium: The medium - term fundamentals are weak. Palladium demand is highly dependent on gasoline - vehicle catalysts and faces long - term pressure from the increase in electric - vehicle penetration and the acceleration of platinum substitution [2]. 3.5. Key Events to Watch - March 10, 18:00: US February NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; 22:00: US February existing - home sales data - March 11, 20:30: US February CPI monthly and annual rates - March 13, 20:30: US January core PCE price index; 22:00: US January durable - goods orders [2]