《有色》日报-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Copper: Yesterday's copper price bottomed out and stabilized. In the long - term, the copper price is expected to rise due to the tight supply of copper mines and the increasing demand for grid upgrades. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [1]. - Tin: After the market panic dissipated, the overnight tin price recovered. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [3]. - Zinc: The zinc fundamentals are generally good. The price downside may be limited, but the upside may be restricted if downstream production recovery in the peak season is less than expected [5]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures price may be supported at the cost level. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of production and sales and cost fluctuations, with cautious operation [7]. - Polysilicon: It is recommended to wait and see for now. If participating, consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, with attention to position control and stop - loss setting [8]. - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, with the main contract referring to the range of 134000 - 142000 [9]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main contract referring to the range of 14000 - 14500 [11]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price may maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with a long - term bullish logic. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to operate in the range of 24000 - 26000 yuan/ton [13]. - Aluminum Alloy: The aluminum - alloy market will continue to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract referring to the range of 22500 - 24500 yuan/ton [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate widely around the macro - expectations in the short - term, with the main contract referring to the range of 155,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped 1.47% to 99480 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount increased by 25 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [1]. Tin - Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price dropped 4.79% to 377950 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 20.66% [3]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the tin ore import volume was 17637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.81% [3]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 24360 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 2835 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.99% [5]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Spread: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, and the main contract price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8670 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental Data: The national industrial silicon production in February was 27.57 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26.58% [7]. Polysilicon - Price and Spread: The average price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 0.2% to 48900 yuan/kg, and the main contract price increased by 3.86% to 42700 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental Data: The polysilicon production in February was 7.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.61% [8]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped 1.14% to 138900 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 7.41% [9]. - Fundamental Data: In February, China's refined nickel production was 32550 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.59% [9]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped 0.35% to 14400 yuan/ton, and the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) increased by 5.41% [11]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 133.99 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.89% [11]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 3.07% to 24450 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum import loss was - 1295.3 yuan/ton [13]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 346.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.91% [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 2.04% to 25000 yuan/ton [14]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 35.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped 0.32% to 154750 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 593.41% [16]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13% [16].