纯碱、玻璃日报-20260311

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: "Soda Ash, Glass Daily" [1] - Date: March 11, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass, Soda Ash) [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On March 10, the main soda ash futures contract SA605 turned from rising to falling, closing at 1,235 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton or 4.48%, with a daily reduction of 45,914 lots [8]. - The current soda ash market remains under pressure. Supply is in excess, with the ratio of light to heavy soda production rising since mid - September 2024. New capacity and high operating rates keep supply loose. Demand is weak due to the drag of the real estate market on float glass production and the slowdown in photovoltaic glass demand caused by previous over - capacity. Inventory is accumulating and at a historically high level, and de - stocking is slow [8]. - The government's report on real estate has improved the demand expectation. The US - Iran war has provided cost support and raised the price expectation of the chemical industry, but the short - term market sentiment cannot support the price for long. In the short term, the soda ash market is highly volatile. If it can hold above 1,200 points and break through further, the upside space will open. In the long term, due to weak fundamentals, the soda ash market still faces downward price pressure [9]. Glass - On March 9, 2025, the main glass futures contract FG2605 turned from rising to falling. The glass market still has the contradiction between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The price is suppressed by high inventory and pending production capacity, and supported by potential cold - repair of production lines due to industry losses. Inventory is still accumulating [10]. - Glass prices rose with the chemical sector due to geopolitical factors but fell as the sentiment faded. In the short term, glass may enter a period of significant fluctuations. In the long term, the upside space depends on changes in commercial housing sales data. Currently, the market is in the traditional off - season, but the trading sentiment has improved. Short - term long positions can be considered, but the profit space is limited [10]. Group 3: Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources including Wind and iFind [12][19][21]