《能源化工》日报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term开工 will remain high, but geopolitical factors still exist. With the post - holiday orders of domestic agents being sent out, the domestic shortage of some enterprises will be alleviated. Due to the high overseas raw material prices providing cost support and the geopolitical factors causing price fluctuations, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,500 - 17,500 [1]. Urea - On March 10, the urea futures followed the chemical sector, opening low and moving high, and the spot market price was adjusted upwards. The fundamentals of urea have not changed much, with high - level production. There is still pressure on the supply side. There is still some demand for green - turning fertilizer in the agricultural sector, and industrial demand is recovering. In the short term, the urea price is relatively strong, but after the green - turning fertilizer season ends in the second half of the month, there may be a market downturn. The main contract should focus on whether it can break through the 1,860 - 1,900 range [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: On March 10, the caustic soda futures hit the daily limit down during the session and then rose at the end. The spot market is still optimistic, and the caustic soda price has been slightly increased. The supply - side load is slowly recovering, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The demand from the alumina industry is stable, and non - aluminum downstream demand is improving. Due to the Middle East conflict, the international supply chain risk has increased, and the export expectation has strengthened. However, the overall supply - demand situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to the actual delivery volume and price fluctuations [5]. - PVC: On March 10, the PVC futures price dropped significantly, and the low - price transactions in the spot market were good. The supply - demand situation has changed slightly. The ethylene - based production enterprises may reduce their loads in the long term, while the calcium carbide - based production enterprises have slightly increased their loads and costs. Domestic demand is normal, and foreign trade exports are waiting for new quotes. The PVC price may be passively pushed up, but it is also affected by the uncertainty of the cost - end transmission [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: On March 10, the soda ash futures fell, and the spot price was driven up but the trading was light. The weekly production increased slightly, and the production line load fluctuated. The demand was average, and downstream enterprises replenished their inventories moderately. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and decline, and short - selling can be attempted at the current price [6]. - Glass: On March 10, the glass futures price dropped. The spot price was raised. The supply - side daily melting volume remained low, and a new production line was ignited. The demand from downstream deep - processing and low - e products was average, and the futures price decline reduced the purchasing intention of futures - spot merchants. The inventory of production enterprises still faced pressure, and it is expected to continue to accumulate this week. The cost increase from energy prices needs further observation. It is expected to fluctuate and decline, with a reference range of 1,000 - 1,150. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Polyolefins - The Middle East geopolitical situation is the core driver. The short - term logic is dominated by cost - push and supply reduction, and the fundamentals are secondary. The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" game stage. The price fluctuates sharply following geopolitical news, and the high price lacks actual transaction support. After Trump's statement, the crude oil price fluctuated extremely, causing the domestic futures and spot prices to drop significantly, and the market is in a state of high volatility, low trading volume, and fragility [7]. Methanol - The methanol futures dropped significantly, and the spot was purchased on demand. The basis was relatively strong, and the overall transaction was okay. The domestic production device load remained at a relatively high level, but due to shipping interruptions, the market strongly expected a significant reduction in subsequent imports. The demand side remained weak, and the olefin开工 rate of the main downstream continued to decline. The current port inventory is still at a relatively high level in history, but the market expects the port to enter the de - stocking cycle. The current price trend is mainly driven by the supply interruption expectation and risk sentiment, and the subsequent trend depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict [8]. LPG No specific view on the trend of LPG is provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工 rate data are presented [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Due to the geopolitical influence, the crude oil transportation is blocked, and the Asian refinery开工 rate is expected to be affected. Some refineries at home and abroad have adjusted their loads, and combined with some device maintenance plans, the pure benzene supply is expected to decline. The downstream styrene industry has maintained its profit and load at a relatively high level, and the short - term demand support is strong. The pure benzene supply - demand expectation has improved, but it will fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and shrink the spread between EB04 and BZ04 when it is high [12]. - Styrene: The styrene industry has good profits, and the supply in March will remain at a high level. The demand side is expected to gradually recover after the holiday, and the supply - demand in March is expected to slightly de - stock. It will also fluctuate with the crude oil price. The same strategy as for pure benzene is recommended [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Due to the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, some PX factories in Asia have issued force majeure, and the PX supply is gradually affected. After the holiday, some PTA devices have restarted or increased their loads due to improved processing fees, and the PX supply - demand situation is gradually improving. It is expected to fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to wait and see for now and go long at a low price after the market stabilizes [13]. - PTA: The PTA load has increased after the holiday, and the March device maintenance plan is less than expected. Although the supply - demand expectation has improved, there is still an inventory accumulation expectation. It will follow the cost - end fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to the oil price trend [13]. - Ethylene Glycol: In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has significantly decreased due to the shutdown or load reduction of multiple coal - based and oil - based ethylene glycol devices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the transportation of overseas sources, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be low from mid - March. The polyester load will seasonally recover in March, and the de - stocking amplitude may increase. However, due to Trump's statement, the short - term price may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is still weak. It will follow the raw material price fluctuation and is affected by the cautious downstream procurement. It is recommended to have the same single - side strategy as PTA, and the PF disk processing fee will fluctuate between 800 - 1,100 [13]. - Bottle - chip: The domestic bottle - chip supply will gradually increase in March. The absolute price will follow the cost - end fluctuation, and the processing fee will fluctuate. It is recommended to have the same single - side strategy as PTA, and the PR main - contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton [13]. Crude Oil - WTI 04 - month contract closed at $83.45 per barrel, down 11.94%, and Brent 05 - month contract closed at $87.80 per barrel, down 11.28%. The G7 energy ministers did not reach an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves. Due to the drone attack, ADNOC has closed its refinery. The US strategic oil reserve remains stable. It will take at least 4 - 6 weeks for the Gulf region to fully resume export functions, and Iran has not clearly stated to stop the blockade. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate significantly [14]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Natural Rubber - Spot Price and Basis: The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.18%. The full - latex basis decreased by 420 yuan/ton to - 362 yuan/ton, with a decline of 763.64%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 15,850 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.63% [1]. - Inter - month Spread: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 680 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.16%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 560 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.61%. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at 120 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: In January, Thailand's production increased by 54,800 tons to 549,000 tons, with an increase of 11.09%. Indonesia's production decreased by 28,200 tons to 161,100 tons, with a decline of 14.90%. India's production decreased by 3,900 tons to 108,100 tons, with a decline of 3.48%. In December, China's production decreased by 84,500 tons to 51,200 tons. The开工 rate of semi - steel tires increased by 39.47 percentage points to 74.03%, and the开工 rate of full - steel tires increased by 36.73 percentage points to 65.90%. In December, the domestic tire production increased by 473,500 pieces to 10,656,300 pieces, with an increase of 4.65%. The tire export volume increased by 186,000 pieces to 5,843,000 pieces, with an increase of 3.29%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 159,900 tons to 803,400 tons, with an increase of 24.84% [1]. - Inventory Change: The bonded - area inventory increased by 200 tons to 680,412 tons, with an increase of 0.07%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 202 tons to 20,399 tons, with a decline of 0.40% [1]. Urea - Futures Closing Price and Spread: The 01 contract decreased by 34 yuan/ton to 1,849 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.81%. The 05 contract decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 1,856 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.57%. The 09 contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 1,884 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.88%. The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 22 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton [4]. - Main - contract Position: The long - position of the top 20 decreased by 14,403 to 121,561, with a decline of 10.59%. The short - position of the top 20 decreased by 25,730 to 177,959, with a decline of 14.46% [4]. - Upstream Raw Material Price: The price of anthracite small pieces in Jincheng remained unchanged at 920 yuan/ton. The price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton. The price of thermal coal at the port in Qinhuangdao remained unchanged at 746 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot Market Price: The price of small - particle urea in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,890 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.53%. The price in Guangdong increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.54% [4]. - Supply - demand Overview: The daily production of domestic urea increased by 3,200 tons to 221,200 tons, with an increase of 1.49%. The weekly production decreased by 15,700 tons to 1,003,000 tons, with a decline of 13.53%. The factory - warehouse inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 190,000 tons, with an increase of 9.20% [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged at 1,843.8 yuan/ton. The price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,220 yuan/ton. The price of PVC in East China by calcium carbide method decreased by 610 yuan/ton to 5,120 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10.6%. The price of PVC in East China by ethylene method increased by 200 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.3% [5]. - Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation and Export Profit: The FOB price at East China ports increased by 10 US dollars/ton to 340 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 3.0%. The export profit increased by 42.6 yuan/ton to 230.2 yuan/ton, with an increase of 22.7% [5]. - PVC Overseas Quotation and Export Profit: The CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 700 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in India increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 740 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 2.8%. The FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC at Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 635 US dollars/ton. The export profit increased by 37.3 yuan/ton to 84.3 yuan/ton, with an increase of 79.4% [5]. - Supply (Caustic Soda and PVC开工率 and Industry Profit): The开工率 of the caustic soda industry increased by 1.5 percentage points to 86.4%. The total开工率 of PVC decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 81.1%. The profit of PVC by external - purchase calcium carbide method increased by 135 yuan/ton to - 507 yuan/ton, with an increase of 21.0%. The profit of northwest integrated production increased by 65 yuan/ton to - 293.1 yuan/ton, with an increase of 18.2% [5]. - Demand (Caustic Soda and PVC Downstream开工率): The开工率 of the alumina industry decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 82.6%. The开工率 of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 1.7 percentage points to 90.1%. The开机率 of the printing and dyeing industry increased by 18.1 percentage points to 42.5%. The开工率 of Longzhong sample pipes increased by 19.4 percentage points to 33.0%. The开工率 of Longzhong sample profiles increased by 16.1 percentage points to 27.4% [5]. - Inventory (Caustic Soda and PVC Social and Factory - warehouse Inventory): The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda increased by 0.9 tons to 55 tons, with an increase of 1.7%. The upstream factory - warehouse inventory of PVC decreased by 46,000 tons to 458,000 tons, with a decline of 9.0%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 46,000 tons to 458,000 tons, with a decline of 9.0% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - related Price and Spread: The price in North China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,070 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.94%. The price in East China remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan/ton. The glass 2605 contract decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,076 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.54%. The 05 basis increased by 38 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, with an increase of 86.36% [6]. - Soda Ash - related Price and Spread: The price in North China increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,280 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.40%. The price in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,25