建信期货豆粕日报-20260311

Group 1: General Information - The report focuses on the soybean meal industry [1] - The report date is March 11, 2026 [2] - The research team members are Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review Contract Quotes - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 3006, the opening price was 2987, the highest price was 3004, the lowest price was 2922, the closing price was 2973, with a decline of 33 and a decline rate of -1.10%. The trading volume was 1,570,739, the open interest was 1,887,486, and the change in open interest was -47,932 [6] - For the soybean meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2934, the opening price was 2912, the highest price was 2914, the lowest price was 2851, the closing price was 2884, with a decline of 50 and a decline rate of -1.70%. The trading volume was 102,710, the open interest was 528,101, and the change in open interest was 460 [6] - For the soybean meal 2609 contract, the previous settlement price was 3083, the opening price was 3050, the highest price was 3058, the lowest price was 2994, the closing price was 3022, with a decline of 61 and a decline rate of -1.98%. The trading volume was 384,313, the open interest was 930,973, and the change in open interest was 30,341 [6] External Market and Influencing Factors - The US soybean futures contract in the external market declined, with the main contract approaching 1190 cents. There were few changes in the external market's news. In South America, Brazil's harvest progress was slightly slow, and there were reports of congestion and delays at some ports, which was relatively bullish. In Argentina, there was sufficient rainfall during the holiday, and the soybean - producing areas still had rainfall in the past week, so the overall reduction in production might not be large [6] - The focus of the market was in the Middle East. After Israel and the US launched a war against Iran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the continuation of the war led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical product prices, which affected soybean prices through three paths: cost increase of fertilizers, increase in freight rates, and rising inflation expectations. Although the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America remained unchanged, due to the unexpected development of macro - events and the difficult - to - falsify easing of Sino - US trade frictions under the expectation of Trump's visit to China, the CBOT soybean price might be supported, and future attention should be paid to when the strait could be unsealed [6] Group 3: Industry News - The USDA Annual Outlook Forum predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, in line with analysts' expectations. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year would reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total demand was expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels, including an increase of 125 million bushels in exports to 1.7 billion bushels and an increase of 85 million bushels in crushing to 2.655 billion bushels. The ending inventory would remain basically flat at 355 million bushels. The chief economist of the US Department of Agriculture warned that the production cost was expected to remain high, which would continue to squeeze the planting profit margin [7] - US President Trump would visit China from March 31 to April 2, 2026, for a meeting with China's top leaders. This would be the first face - to - face meeting between the two leaders since their meeting in South Korea in October last year, when they reached a trade truce agreement [15] - According to BAGE, as of the week of February 18, rainfall in the central and northern agricultural areas of Argentina, although unevenly distributed and of varying intensities, significantly improved the moisture conditions of soybean crops. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops were rated normal to good, higher than 68% a week ago and 68% in the same period last year; 66% of the planting areas had suitable to optimal moisture conditions, higher than 56% a week ago and 70% in the same period last year. The proportion of poorly rated soybeans was 25%, down from 32% a week ago and 32% in the same period last year [15]