《黑色》日报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Crude oil and coking coal prices have fallen, causing steel prices to rise and then fall. Steel mill production remains stable, inventory is seasonally decreasing, and apparent demand is rising. It is necessary to focus on the height of the rebound in apparent demand. The government work report of the Two Sessions is basically in line with expectations, and the domestic demand expectation does not fluctuate much. The main focus is on the marginal changes in steel exports. Since the US - Iran conflict, steel exports have declined due to shipping disruptions. It is judged that steel prices will fluctuate within a range, with attention paid to the pressure levels of around 3150 yuan/ton for rebar and 3300 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated upward yesterday. Affected by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the iron ore market fluctuated more violently. In the short term, positive factors for iron ore are dominant, and geopolitical conflicts will further intensify market fluctuations. In terms of fundamentals, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the decline in Brazil and non - mainstream regions was significant. On the demand side, hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent. In the short term, iron ore prices will be boosted by geopolitical impacts and the unresolved BHP negotiation, and prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to observe in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coke and coking coal futures both showed a downward trend from high levels. For coke, the first round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills was successfully implemented on March 6 and is expected to stabilize. The supply - demand situation is basically balanced in the short term. For coking coal, the price of coke was cut by mainstream steel mills on March 4 to reduce costs, and it is expected that the coke price will stabilize. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to view both coke and coking coal as oscillating, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850 for coke and 1100 - 1250 for coking coal, and to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry - Yesterday, the silicon iron main contract fell sharply, and the silicon manganese main contract opened low and then recovered losses, both affected by geopolitical conflicts. For silicon iron, supply decreased slightly last week, with output cuts in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia and increases in Qinghai and Gansu. For silicon manganese, supply decreased slightly, and the output absolute value is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. In terms of demand, iron - making water output decreased significantly during the Two Sessions but is expected to rise with the recovery of terminal demand. In the short term, steel exports to the Middle East will be blocked, but there may be an export substitution effect in the long term. It is recommended to observe the market and operate cautiously [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) showed different degrees of changes, with some prices remaining stable and some falling. Hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices also decreased to varying degrees [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices remained unchanged, and the costs and profits of different steel products in different regions (such as Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost, East China hot - rolled coil profit) changed. For example, the East China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 30, and the North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 40 [1]. Production - The total output of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.1%, with an increase in electric - furnace output by 349.6% and a decrease in converter output by 0.5%. The hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.7%, the rebar inventory increased by 9.4%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 27.7%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 22.4%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 192.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 4.9% [1]. Iron - making Water Output - The daily average iron - making water output decreased by 2.4% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore varieties (such as Carajás fines, PB fines) and the basis of 05 contracts showed different degrees of changes. The 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread also increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port remained stable, while the price of Brazilian mixed fines increased by 0.4%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increased by 1.0% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 21.6%, the global shipment volume decreased by 13.3%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 18.4% [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4%, the 45 - port daily average ore - evacuation volume increased by 4.2%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.4% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.2%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.8%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of different coke varieties (such as Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke, Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke) and futures contracts (05, 09) decreased to varying degrees. The coking profit increased by 24 [7]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained stable, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 3.9% [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%. The output of raw coal and clean coal in Fenwei sample coal mines increased [7]. Demand - The iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 0.5%, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.3%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%, and the port inventory increased by 3.0%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, while the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports decreased [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 1.6 to 0.7, an increase of 2.3 [7]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry Futures and Spot - The silicon iron main contract price increased slightly, and the silicon manganese main contract price decreased. The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions decreased to varying degrees [8]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed slightly, and the production profits decreased significantly. For example, the production profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia decreased from 200 to 30, a decrease of 85.0% [8]. Supply - The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 57.6%, the arrival volume increased by 1.8%, and the port inventory decreased by 4.6%. The silicon iron output decreased by 2.1%, and the production enterprise's start - up rate decreased by 6.3% [8]. Demand - The silicon iron demand remained unchanged, the 247 - steel - mill daily average iron - making water output decreased by 2.4%, the blast - furnace start - up rate decreased by 3.1%, the output of five major steel products increased by 0.1%, and the silicon manganese demand increased by 0.9% [8]. Inventory Changes - The silicon iron inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 5.9%, and the silicon manganese inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 2.8% [8].