建信期货钢材日评-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel futures market showed significant declines followed by narrowing losses on March 10. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate and strengthen in the future, and the 4-year and 10-month downward cycle may have ended, but the rebound path remains unclear [6][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - Futures Market: On March 10, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 significantly declined and then narrowed their losses. The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3104 yuan/ton, down 0.42%, and the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract closed at 3256 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The stainless steel 2605 contract closed at 14225 yuan/ton, up 0.82% [5][6] - Spot Market: On March 10, the prices of individual rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets declined. The rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Hefei markets dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi, and Guangzhou markets dropped by 10 yuan/ton [8] - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar 2605 contract continued to diverge, with the J value falling faster, the K value turning down, and the D value continuing to rise slightly, showing a potential dead cross. The daily KDJ indicators of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract also diverged, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to rise. The daily MACD red bars of the rebar 2605 contract enlarged for 5 consecutive trading days, and those of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract enlarged for 2 consecutive trading days [8] - Future Outlook: The news first significantly boosted and then negatively affected the expected price of the steel market. Fundamentally, as time passes, the low steel production will conflict with the warming spring demand. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and strengthen, but the future rebound path is unclear, and investors or operators need to prepare for long-term market fluctuations, especially pay attention to possible changes in the Middle East situation [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - Coal Transportation: In the first two months of this year, the "Xinjiang coal to Ningxia" transportation volume exceeded 825,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 356,200 tons, an increase of 76% [12] - Coal Electricity Capacity Price: Since January 1, 2026, the coal electricity capacity price standard in Shanxi Province has been adjusted to 165 yuan/kilowatt-year (tax included) [12] - Steel Company Performance: In the first three quarters of 2025, Valin Steel achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.72%. The company adheres to a differentiated development strategy and continuously invests in production line improvement and product structure adjustment. The cash dividend and share repurchase and cancellation amount in 2025 accounted for 47.5% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 [12][13] - Foreign Trade Data: In the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value was 1.09954 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%. Exports were 656.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 21.8%, and imports were 442.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 19.8%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, and cumulative steel imports were 827,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.7%. Cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 210.023 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and cumulative imports of coal and lignite were 77.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [13] - Coal Export in Australia: In February 2026, the total coal export volume of the three major terminals in North Queensland, Australia, was 8.7451 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.53% but a year-on-year increase of 36.94% [13] - Energy - Saving Measures: Thailand will require most government agencies to work from home, and the Philippines has implemented a four - day work arrangement to save energy [13] - Russian Gas Supply: Russia plans to redirect some of its liquefied natural gas supplies to other markets before the EU import ban takes effect [13] - Shipping Market: Last week, about 24 oil tankers signed time charter orders, the highest since May 2020. The one - year charter rate of supertankers reached a record high of 176,250 US dollars per day. The benchmark revenue of very large crude carriers on the Middle East - China route in the spot market reached 476,754 US dollars per day. It is expected that there will be a 15% excess of shipping capacity in the Middle East in the next month [13] - Coal Price: The Asian benchmark Newcastle coal futures price jumped about 9.3% on March 9, reaching the 150 US dollars/ton mark, the highest since November 2024. The Rotterdam coal price in the European market rose about 13% to 119.50 US dollars/ton on March 2, a 52 - week high [14] - Mongolian Iron Ore Export: In February 2026, Mongolia's iron ore export volume was 586,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.34% but a month-on-month decrease of 16.47%, the lowest since March 2025 [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and May contracts [18][21][22][25][32][33]