建信期货铁矿石日评-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 10, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly. After opening, it quickly declined, then fluctuated and rebounded, turning from a decline to a rise, closing at 784.0 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [7] - Currently, in terms of fundamentals, the shipments from Australia and Brazil declined last week. Affected by weather conditions in the first quarter, the overall shipment volume is at a relatively low level. The arrival volume rebounded last week and may oscillate at a moderately low level in the future [10] - On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output before the Spring Festival slightly recovered to over 2.3 million tons, and the demand remained resilient. After the festival, it continued to rise in the first week and then declined, mainly due to production restrictions of some steel enterprises during the Two Sessions [10] - Overall, although it is still the off - season for demand, the current profit performance is not bad. The profit per ton of blast furnace steel for rebar and hot - rolled coils is in the positive range. Driven by profit, the resumption of production may accelerate after the Two Sessions [11] - In terms of inventory, steel mills replenished their stocks sufficiently before the festival, and the inventory decreased significantly after the holiday. It is expected that the available days of inventory will continue to decline to about 20 days. Port inventory has slightly increased, mainly affected by the decline in arrival volume and low downstream production during the holiday. Considering that the arrival volume in March will still oscillate at a medium - low level, while the production rhythm of downstream steel enterprises will gradually resume, it is expected that the port inventory will remain at about 1.7 billion tons, still at a historical high [11] - Generally speaking, the supply in the first quarter is relatively tight, while the demand side still faces certain policy pressure during the Two Sessions, but the overall resumption of production is expected to accelerate. Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the iron ore price has started to rebound. After the geopolitical disturbances gradually subside, the fundamentals may boost the iron ore price to continue to strengthen periodically, but the high port inventory and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space of the iron ore price [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On March 10, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were raised by 0.4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were lowered by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - In terms of technical analysis, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract showed a divergent trend. The J - value turned down, while the K - value and D - value continued to rise. The red bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract has been expanding for 3 consecutive trading days [9] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil declined last week. Affected by weather in the first quarter, the overall shipment volume is at a low level. The arrival volume rebounded last week and may oscillate at a moderately low level [10] - Demand: Before the Spring Festival, the daily average pig iron output slightly recovered to over 2.3 million tons. After the festival, it continued to rise in the first week and then declined, mainly due to production restrictions during the Two Sessions. Currently, although it is the off - season, the profit is good, and the resumption of production may accelerate after the Two Sessions [10][11] - Inventory: Steel mills' pre - holiday inventory decreased significantly after the holiday, and the available days of inventory are expected to decline to about 20 days. Port inventory has slightly increased, and it is expected to remain at about 1.7 billion tons [11] 3.2 Industry News - According to Xinhua News Agency, the spokesman of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran said that in case of an attack on Iran, Iran would not allow "enemies and their allies" to export oil from the region [12] - The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran responded to Trump's remarks on the Iranian situation, saying that the end of the war would be decided by Iran [12] - The actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to transportation disruptions, and Saudi Arabia was forced to divert to the Red Sea. Saudi Aramco recently provided about 4.6 million barrels of spot crude oil through a rare tender. The tender in the spot market reflects market pressure [12] - According to CCTV International News, Trump said in a phone interview that the war might end soon [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volumes of iron ore at main ports, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, the available days of steel mills' iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization, electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mills' inventory of five major steel products [14][20][22]