大越期货尿素早报-20260311

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of urea are currently neutral. The daily production and operating rate are at a high level compared to the same period in history. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, the daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is still at a historical high. Industrial demand is generally weak but has an upward expectation. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased, while that of melamine has decreased. The agricultural demand has temporarily reached its peak, and the comprehensive inventory has increased. The international price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has widened. The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association has called on market participants to "not spread or believe rumors" and emphasized that the medium - and long - term urea price should remain stable. The UR2605 contract basis is 4, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral. The UR comprehensive inventory is 128.8 million tons (-6.2), which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate widely today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are that agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season and overseas prices are continuously strengthening. The bearish factor is that the daily production is at a historical high. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is at a historical high. Industrial demand is weak but has an upward expectation. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased, while that of melamine has decreased. Agricultural demand has temporarily ended, and the comprehensive inventory has increased. The international price has risen due to geopolitical factors, and the export price difference has widened. The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association has emphasized price stability. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (+0), and the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The UR2605 contract basis is 4, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 128.8 million tons (-6.2), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate widely. With the daily production at a high level year - on - year, industrial demand is divided, agricultural demand has reached its peak, and the inventory has increased. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1860 | 0 | 05 Contract | 1856 | -49 | Warehouse Receipt | 5335 | 2475 | | Shandong Spot | 1890 | 10 | Basis | 4 | 49 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 128.8 | -6.2 | | Henan Spot | 1860 | 0 | UR01 | 1849 | -34 | UR Factory Inventory | 109.8 | - | | FOB China | 3886 | - | UR05 | 1856 | -49 | UR Port Inventory | 19.0 | - | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1884 | -36 | - | - | - | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]