建信期货集运指数日报-20260311

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: March 11, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The Middle East situation has changed, causing the container shipping index to weaken significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals show that it is still the off - season after the Spring Festival. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The shipping capacity supply in March and April is still at a high level in the same period of history. Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not affect the European routes, the Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, which can continue to digest the shipping capacity pressure. The current off - season price increase may be more for price stabilization and difficult to be actually implemented. It is recommended to pay attention to the actual cargo collection situation later. The suspension of the Middle East route may cause the shipping capacity supply to overflow to other routes, but the impact is limited. The main factor is that the suspension of the Red Sea resumption plan can digest the excess shipping capacity, but it is difficult to change the fundamental pattern of oversupply of European route shipping capacity. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may lead to a phased strengthening of the index, but it is also prone to a sharp correction when the event eases and the sentiment cools down. Attention should be paid to the convergence of spot and futures prices near the delivery period in the second half of March, and there are opportunities to short - allocate the off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation: The Middle East situation has changed, and the container shipping index has weakened significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals are in the off - season, with limited short - term demand and high shipping capacity supply. The Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, which can digest some shipping capacity pressure. The off - season price increase may be for price stabilization [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Pay attention to the actual cargo collection situation. The suspension of the Middle East route has a limited impact. The main factor is the suspension of the Red Sea resumption plan. Short - term geopolitical conflicts may cause the index to strengthen in the short term but are also prone to sharp corrections. Pay attention to the convergence of spot and futures prices near the delivery period in the second half of March, and short - allocate the off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7]. 4.2 Industry News - Overall Market: The China export container shipping market is affected by the sharp escalation of the geopolitical situation, with increased fluctuations in freight rates and a rising comprehensive index. On March 6, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1489.19 points, a 11.7% increase from the previous period [8]. - European Routes: The eurozone's January unemployment rate dropped slightly to 6.1%, indicating stable economic growth. However, there are many uncertainties in the future. The transportation market of the Asia - Europe route is basically stable, with flat demand and a slight increase in freight rates. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1452 US dollars/TEU, a 2.3% increase from the previous period [8][9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation is basically the same as that of European routes, with the spot market booking price continuing to rise. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was 2360 US dollars/TEU, a 2.4% increase from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: The US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, better than expected, and the employment market showed signs of stabilization. However, military actions in the Middle East may increase inflation pressure and slow down economic growth. The transportation demand is weak, and the freight rate continues to rise. On March 6, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were 1940 US dollars/FEU and 2717 US dollars/FEU respectively, with increases of 4.5% and 1.0% from the previous period [9]. - Other News: Trump said the war with Iran may end soon. The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing. G7 finance ministers discussed how to deal with the soaring oil prices but have not decided to release strategic oil reserves. The US Supreme Court ruled that some tariffs are illegal, and China urges the US to cancel relevant tariffs [9]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - European Routes: On March 9, 2026, the SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) was 1545.46 points, an 82.06 - point increase (5.6%) from March 2 [11]. - US West Routes: On March 9, 2026, the SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) was 1121.22 points, a 76.14 - point increase (7.3%) from March 2 [11]. 4.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on March 10 shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, and position changes [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, the trend of container shipping European line futures contracts, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - European basic port freight rates [11][16][17][19]