建信期货国债日报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under pressure as the economy in Q1 may continue to perform well, which dampens market expectations of monetary easing. Also, Trump's visit to China at the end of March may boost market risk appetite [11]. - The short - term situation between the US and Iran is unclear, which boosts risk - aversion demand. However, the sharp rise in oil prices has led to an increase in inflation expectations, and the significant fluctuations in the financial market have also brought liquidity shocks, resulting in large short - term disturbances. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data for January - February [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: Due to the easing signs in the Middle East situation, the alleviation of financial market liquidity pressure, and the decline in oil prices to ease inflation concerns, Treasury bond futures recovered in the morning. However, they weakened again around noon due to the better - than - expected foreign trade data from January to February and improved in the afternoon [8]. - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds mostly declined slightly. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 dropped by 0.35bp to 1.8075% as of 16:30 [9]. - Funding Market: The inter - bank funding market was loose. The net withdrawal of reverse repurchase in the open market was 144.8 billion yuan. The overnight DR rate in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated around 1.32%, the 7 - day funding rate fluctuated around 1.44%, and the medium - to - long - term funding was stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated between 1.56% - 1.58% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - Foreign Trade: In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate returning to double - digits at 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%; and the trade surplus was 1.50349 trillion yuan. The trade value between China and ASEAN was 1.24 trillion yuan, a 20.3% increase; the trade value with the EU was 998.94 billion yuan, a 19.9% increase; and the trade value with the US was 609.71 billion yuan, a 16.9% decrease [13]. - Real Estate: 38 provincial and municipal real estate brokerage (intermediary) industry associations jointly issued an initiative to maintain a clear online space in the real estate field, with three core requirements: "show identity and take responsibility", "observe the bottom line and resist speculation", and "strengthen cooperation and focus on governance" [14]. - Government Debt: In 2026, China plans to issue 1.189 trillion yuan in new government debt. Among them, the central government will issue 669 billion yuan in Treasury bonds, accounting for about 56.3% of the total new government debt this year; local governments will issue 520 billion yuan in local government bonds, accounting for about 43.7%. Since 2023, the proportion of new central government debt has been significantly increasing [14]. - CPI and PPI: China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, with an expected increase of 0.9% and a previous increase of 0.2%. The average CPI from January to February increased by 0.8% year - on - year. China's PPI in February decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with an expected decrease of 1.2% and a previous decrease of 1.4% [15]. 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: Information on the trading data of Treasury bond futures on March 10, including contract details such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and position change [6]. - Monetary Market: There are various data charts related to the monetary market, including the term structure and trend of SHIBOR, and the changes in inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rates [31][35]. - Derivatives Market: There are data charts related to the derivatives market, such as the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [37].