大越期货纯碱早报-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,276 yuan/ton to 1,235 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.21%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1,250 yuan/ton to 1,210 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.20%. The main basis decreased from - 26 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.85% [5]. II. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. III. Soda Ash Production - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 154.65 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 70.50 yuan/ton, at a historical low [14]. - 开工率 and Output: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.04%. The weekly output of soda ash is 80.70 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 43.23 tons, at a historical high [17][19]. - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [20]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales Ratio: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash is 61.12% [23]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 14.85 tons, and the operating rate is 70.81% [26]. V. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide is 194.72 tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [31]. VI. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [32].