大越期货钢材早报-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - As the policy expectations during the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black commodities will return to the fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "reality of high inventory" and the "expectation of peak - season demand." In the short term, whether the intensity of demand recovery can match the supply recovery speed will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state [1][2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Spot and Basis - For rebar, the spot price and the basis are 116, indicating a bullish situation. For hot - rolled coil, the spot price is 3250 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 6, showing a neutral situation [1][2] Profit and Cost - Not provided in the given content Capacity and Inventory - Rebar: The supply is continuously recovering, and both the steel mill and social inventories are accumulating. The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.3775 million tons, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, presenting a bearish situation. Hot - rolled coil: The social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, and the inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8161 million tons, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, also showing a bearish situation [1][2] Rebar Demand and Downstream - Not provided in the given content Hot - Rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - For hot - rolled coil, the downstream consumption volume recovery is still insufficient to digest the high - level inventory, presenting a bearish situation [2] Macro - Not provided in the given content