大越期货棉花早报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market shows a short - term slightly bullish and oscillating trend. The 1 - 2 month textile exports are good, entering the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", and with the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports [4]. - The ICAC predicts that the global cotton production in 2026/27 will be 2480 million tons, a 4.0% decrease compared to 2025/26, mainly due to the decline in Brazil and the US; consumption will be 2500 million tons, a 0.7% decrease, remaining relatively stable as the decrease in Chinese consumption is offset by the growth in India and Vietnam [13]. - The USDA's February report shows that in the 2025/26 year, the global cotton production is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The ICAC predicts that the global cotton consumption in 2026/27 will be 2500 million tons and production will be 2480 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. The USDA's February report shows that in the 2025/26 year, the production is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. From January to February, textile and clothing exports were 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%; cotton yarn imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. The Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/26 year shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons. Overall, it is bullish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,733, and the basis is 1413 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/26 year shows an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, the net long position increases, and the main trend is unclear, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The textile exports from January to February are good. Currently, it is the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", and with the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. The cotton market has a short - term slightly bullish and oscillating trend [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Positive Factors: In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream replenishment occurred before the Spring Festival. The tariff on exports to the US has been reduced. Sino - US relations have eased. The traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" has arrived [5]. - Negative Factors: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton has been listed. Currently, it is the traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In the 2025/26 year, the global cotton production increased by 1% year - on - year to 2609.6 million tons, consumption decreased by 0% year - on - year to 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 2% year - on - year to 1635.3 million tons [11][12]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): In the 2026/27 year, the global cotton production is expected to be 2480 million tons, a 4.0% decrease; consumption is 2500 million tons, a 0.7% decrease; the ending inventory is 1660 million tons, a 1.0% decrease; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.40%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease; the trade volume is 960 million tons, a 1.0% decrease; the yield per unit area is 822 kg/ha, a 1.6% decrease; and the planting area is 30.2 million hectares, a 0.7% decrease [13]. - China's Cotton Supply - Demand Data: In the 2025/26 year, the production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [15]. 3.5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content