大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - 沪镍: The external market price fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average. Supply is sufficient with increased March production and rising domestic inventory. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, and there is a contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices continue to rebound with a firm cost line. Stainless - steel demand is weak despite a slight decline in inventory. New - energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2605 will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - Stainless Steel: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is firm, demand in Indonesia is strong, nickel - iron prices are rebounding, and the cost line provides strong support. Stainless - steel inventory has slightly decreased, and demand is weak. Stainless steel 2604 will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Price Overview - Futures Prices: On March 10, the SHFE nickel主力 price was 137,050, up 530 from March 9; the LME nickel price was 17,545, up 115; the stainless - steel主力 price was 14,225, up 120. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 136,800, down 450, and the cold - rolled index was 13,742, down 8 [9]. - Spot Prices: On March 10, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 141,600, up 2,700; the 1 Jinchuan nickel price was 145,000, up 2,450; the 1 imported nickel price was 138,200, up 2,950; the nickel bean price was 140,800, up 3,050. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless - steel prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,100 or 15,150 [9]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 6, the SHFE nickel inventory was 61,769 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,568 tons, increasing by 978 tons and 437 tons respectively [11]. - On March 10, the LME nickel inventory was 287,088, down 330 from March 9; the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 54,650, up 753; the total inventory was 341,738, up 423 [12]. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 6, the Wuxi stainless - steel inventory was 618,600 tons, the Foshan inventory was 398,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,300 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 716,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons [16]. - On March 10, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 51,655, down 238 from March 9 [17]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 10, the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 dollars/wet ton, up 2; the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 dollars/wet ton, up 2.5. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port increased by 2 dollars/ton [19]. - The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) wet tons was 1,087.52 yuan/nickel point, down 1.19; the price of low - nickel (below 2) wet tons remained unchanged at 3,750 yuan/ton [19]. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost of stainless steel is 14,184, the cost of scrap - steel production is 14,302, and the cost of low - nickel + pure - nickel production is 18,050 [21]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 137,120 yuan/ton [24].