大越期货油脂早报-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and it is expected to implement the B50 plan in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8684, with a basis of 240, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The main long positions of soybean oil are decreasing [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [2] Daily Viewpoints - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows relevant data of Malaysian palm oil, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9340, with a basis of 122, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, and an increase of 46% year - on - year [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The main short positions of palm oil are increasing [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3] Daily Viewpoints - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows relevant data of Malaysian palm oil, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10260, with a basis of 547, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The main short positions of rapeseed oil are increasing [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 9800 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamental situation of oils and fats is relatively loose [5]