大越期货贵金属早报-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - The "escort" false news caused a "roller coaster" in crude oil prices, leading to gold prices fluctuating higher and silver prices rising and then falling. The US Navy's actions and subsequent denials led to significant fluctuations in oil prices. The International Energy Agency's proposal to release over 1.82 billion barrels of oil may lead to a recovery in risk appetite, and gold and silver prices may continue to rise [4][5]. - With the approaching mid - term elections, there is ongoing turmoil and continuous easing, and there is still support at the macro level. For silver, regulatory pressure remains, and the weakness of US technology stocks makes it difficult to restore sentiment [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Gold: The "escort" false news caused a "roller coaster" in crude oil prices, and gold prices fluctuated higher. US stocks had mixed closing results, European stocks rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 1.86% to $5198.70 per ounce. The basis was - 4.46, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 104,934 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [4]. - Silver: The "escort" false news caused a "roller coaster" in crude oil prices, and silver prices rose and then fell. US stocks had mixed closing results, European stocks rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures rose 4.79% to $88.57 per ounce. The basis was - 378, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 5808 kilograms to 259,178 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: Today, focus on China's January - February imports and exports, ECB officials' speeches, and the US February existing home sales. The US Navy's actions and subsequent denials led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, and gold prices fluctuated. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to 2.5 yuan per gram. With the IEA's proposal to release over 1.82 billion barrels of oil, risk appetite may recover, and gold prices may continue to rise [4]. - Silver: The US Navy's actions and subsequent denials led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, US stocks rose and then fell, and silver prices rose and then fell. The premium of Shanghai silver expanded to about 2780 yuan per kilogram. With the IEA's proposal to release over 1.82 billion barrels of oil, risk appetite may recover, and silver prices may continue to rise [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: The morning closing of the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference; the G7 meeting to discuss the Middle East situation and oil supply. - 15:00: Germany's February CPI final value. - 16:30: Speech by ECB Vice - President de Guindos. - 18:00: Speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Breeden in Parliament. - 20:30: US February CPI; speech by Fed Governor Bowman on supervision and regulation. - 23:10: Speech by ECB Executive Board Member Schnabel. - 02:00 the next day: US February government budget [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: There are factors such as global turmoil, tense Middle East situation, possible new Fed chairman selection and increased easing expectations, and Trump's tariff disputes as positives. Negative factors include the fading marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, large internal differences within the Fed and the possible suspension of interest rate cuts, and optimistic expectations for Russia - Ukraine peace talks [13]. - Silver: Positive factors include global turmoil, tense Middle East situation, possible new Fed chairman selection and increased easing expectations, Trump's tariff disputes, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory. Negative factors include the fading marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, large internal differences within the Fed and the possible suspension of interest rate cuts, deterioration of risk appetite, and optimistic expectations for Russia - Ukraine peace talks [13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: In the top 20 positions of Shanghai gold, on March 10, 2026, the long - position volume was 162,676, an increase of 3.83% from the previous day; the short - position volume was 40,783, a decrease of 5.72% from the previous day; the net position was 121,893, an increase of 7.47% from the previous day [37]. - Silver: In the top 20 positions of Shanghai silver, on March 10, 2026, the long - position volume was 262,000, an increase of 0.67% from the previous day; the short - position volume was 260,262, an increase of 0.04% from the previous day; the net position was 1,738, an increase of 1789.13% from the previous day [39]. - ETF Positions: SPDR gold ETF positions increased slightly, while silver ETF positions continued to decrease [42][44]. - Warehouse Receipts: COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease significantly [46][48].