大越期货玻璃早报-20260311

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass fundamentals are weak, with supply at a low level, dismal orders from downstream deep - processing plants, and rising glass factory inventory. The glass is expected to oscillate weakly at a low level in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1104 yuan/ton to 1076 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.54%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board decreased from 976 yuan/ton to 972 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The main basis increased from - 128 yuan/ton to - 104 yuan/ton, a change of - 18.75% [6]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but cold - repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 210, with an operating rate of 70.81%, at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,500 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [19][21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [25]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 79.637 million weight boxes, an increase of 4.77% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [40]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [41]. 3.8 Influencing Factors - Likely to be Bullish: Glass production profit is at a low level, and production volume is decreasing [4]. - Likely to be Bearish: The terminal demand in the real estate industry is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4].