大越期货白糖早报-20260311

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - From a technical perspective, Zhengzhou sugar has shown an upward trend after the Spring Festival, with the K-line standing above the long - term moving average and the moving averages starting to diverge upward, indicating a potential right - side market trend [5][9]. - Downstream enterprises are starting to replenish their inventories after the festival, leading to a recovery in market demand. The rise in crude oil prices has increased the price of sugar - made ethanol, indirectly supporting the price of white sugar. The center of gravity of white sugar has shifted upward, and a short - term bullish and volatile outlook is maintained [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No information provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Datagro estimates a sugar deficit of 268,000 tons in the 26/27 sugar season. ISO predicts a global sugar surplus of 122,000 tons in the 25/26 season, down from the previous estimate of 163,000 tons. Covrig Analytics expects the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 140,000 tons, lower than the 470,000 tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool forecasts a global sugar surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, and imported 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,420 yuan, and the basis is 11 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of January in the 25/26 sugar season, the industrial inventory was 3.99 million tons, a neutral situation [6]. - Market Performance: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish sign [6]. - Long - Short Factors - Bullish factors: There may be a decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season. The tariff on syrup has increased. American cola has changed its formula to use sucrose. Crude oil prices have risen [7]. - Bearish factors: Global sugar production has increased, and there is a surplus in the new season. The price of foreign sugar has dropped to around 14.5 cents per pound, opening the import profit window and increasing import pressure [7]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position has decreased, and the main trend is unclear, with a bearish bias [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, ISO predicts a supply surplus of 122,000 tons in the 25/26 season, while Datagro estimates a deficit of 268,000 tons in the 26/27 season [4]. - Sugar Production and Consumption in China: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - producing area, yield per hectare, sugar production, import, consumption, export, and price data in China are presented. For example, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.7 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.7 million tons [33]. - Cost and Profit of Imported Raw Sugar Processing: The cost and profit of imported Brazilian raw sugar processing after 50% tariff from December 2025 to January 2026 are provided. For example, on December 9, 2025, the cost was 5,132 yuan per ton, and the profit was 618 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data The main position is bearish, the net short position has decreased, and the main trend is unclear, with a bearish bias [5].