纯苯：苯乙烯周报：受中东地缘影响短期纯苯、苯乙烯受到带动，注意冲高回落风险-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by Middle - East geopolitics, the short - term trends of pure benzene and styrene are bullish, but there is a risk of a sharp fall after a rise. The short - term market speculative sentiment is strong, and the current price premium is high. For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decline, and the demand support is strong in the short term; for styrene, the supply increase is limited in March, and there is a slight destocking expectation. [1][6][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene 3.1.1 Supply - The weekly output of petroleum benzene is 453,300 tons (-13,700 tons), and the operating rate is 76.56% (-2.31%). Sinopec Quanzhou's reforming unit is starting up, Zhejiang Petrochemical's reforming unit is shut down, and some enterprises' loads have decreased. The operating rate of hydro - benzene remains stable at 62.67%. [4] - From March to May, the planned new production capacity of pure benzene is about 620,000 tons/year, and the planned shutdown involves a production capacity of 3.48 million tons/year. The estimated new output is about 36,000 tons, and the loss in production during the period is about 206,000 tons. [17] 3.1.2 Demand - The comprehensive operating rate of downstream industries has slightly declined. The operating rate of styrene is 74.11% (-0.1%), phenol is 89% (-1%), caprolactam remains stable at 74.5%, and aniline is 89.35% (+0.23%). The consumption of the three major downstream styrene is 263,900 tons (+71,300 tons). [5][9] - From March to May, the new production capacity of downstream is about 1.53 million tons/year. Considering the restart of some long - shut - down devices, the estimated new output of pure benzene in downstream is about 197,000 tons, and the demand loss due to downstream device maintenance is about 312,000 tons. [17] 3.1.3 Valuation - The valuation is neutral. In March, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene has improved. Driven by the cost side, the price has strengthened. The BZN has been repaired, expanding from 140 US dollars/ton in the previous week to around 192 US dollars/ton. [6] 3.1.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term market speculative sentiment is strong, and the current price premium is high. Long positions should be cautious about the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. It is not recommended to continue to chase long positions. Pay attention to the oil price trend. - Arbitrage: The fundamentals of pure benzene are better than those of styrene in the future. It is expected that the processing spread between styrene and pure benzene will continue to compress (currently, the EB04 - BZ04 spread is 1363). [7][10] 3.2 Styrene 3.2.1 Supply - The weekly output of styrene is 371,700 tons (-700 tons), and the operating rate is 74.11% (-0.13%). There are no new start - up or shut - down devices in China during the cycle, and the loads of individual devices in the Northeast, East, and South China have been slightly adjusted. In March, some devices are expected to restart, but some devices also have maintenance plans, so the supply increase is limited. [11] 3.2.2 Demand - After the Spring Festival, downstream demand is gradually recovering. Coupled with the previous export shipments, there is a slight destocking expectation for styrene supply - demand in March. As of March 6, the consumption of the main downstream of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) in China is 263,900 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons from last week. [11][83] 3.2.3 Valuation - The valuation is high. Due to the good profit of the styrene industry, the load of styrene factories remains stable. After the Spring Festival, the downstream load has recovered rapidly, and there are still export transactions. The supply - demand of styrene has improved marginally, and the profit has been maintained. The non - integrated cash flow has been slightly compressed from 628 yuan/ton in the previous week to around 623 yuan/ton. [11] 3.2.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term market speculative sentiment is strong, and the current price premium is high. Long positions should be cautious about the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. It is not recommended to continue to chase long positions. Pay attention to the oil price trend. - Arbitrage: The fundamentals of pure benzene are better than those of styrene in the future. It is expected that the processing spread between styrene and pure benzene will continue to compress (currently, the EB04 - BZ04 spread is 1363). [7][10] 3.3 2026 Production Plan 3.3.1 Pure Benzene - The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2026 is 2.41 million tons, with multiple enterprises in different provinces having new production capacity. The total planned production capacity of pure benzene downstream in 2026 is 2.13 million tons, with a total consumption of pure benzene of 1.75 million tons. [13] 3.3.2 Styrene - The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 2.37 million tons, and in 2026 is 700,000 tons. The total planned production capacity of styrene downstream in 2026 is 2.8 million tons, with a total consumption of styrene of 2.35 million tons. [14] 3.4 2026 March - May Pure Benzene Industry Chain Device Dynamics - Multiple enterprises' devices have defensive production cuts or maintenance plans from March to May, with a total planned shutdown production capacity of 3.48 million tons. [16] - Overall, from March to May, the net supply of the domestic pure benzene industry chain decreases by about 170,000 tons, and the net demand decreases by about 115,000 tons, showing a destocking trend. [17]