大越期货甲醇早报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, domestic methanol prices rose strongly, driven by external macro - factors. The supply in the inland area is stable, and the import is expected to further decrease. The transfer orders in the inland area increased by 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the weekend, with an active trading atmosphere. Some traders built positions in addition to hedging. The ongoing and intensifying Middle - East geopolitical conflict and restricted navigation in the Strait of Hormuz have led to concerns about supply shortages, driving up oil prices and pulling up chemical products. The short - term methanol spot and futures markets will continue to rise, and the follow - up of downstream buyers needs to be monitored. It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2460 - 2700 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are as follows: the supply in the inland is stable, import is expected to decrease, and the transfer orders in the inland increased over the weekend. The Middle - East conflict and Strait of Hormuz situation drive up oil and chemical prices. The short - term market will rise, and downstream buying needs attention. The basis in Jiangsu is 56, with the spot at a premium to the futures. As of February 26, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 97.53 tons, a 3.26 - ton increase from the previous period, and the available circulating supply in coastal areas increased by 9.36 tons to 55.43 tons. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2460 - 2700 [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Some plants have shut down or reduced loads, such as Inner Mongolia Black Cat and Shanxi CITIC. Iranian methanol production is at a low level, and methanol imports in February are expected to continue to shrink. The methanol plants in the production areas actively reduced inventory before, and the current inventory is low, with some enterprises even limiting sales. Some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no supply shortage. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde are gradually shutting down for holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials. The main olefin plants at the ports have shut down, significantly weakening local demand. Most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, and the phased demand has decreased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price Data - In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim in Jiangsu remained at 689 yuan/ton, while the price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased from 2865 yuan/ton to 2550 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main port in China decreased from 334 dollars/ton to 326 dollars/ton, and the import cost decreased from 2837 yuan/ton to 2765 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased from 2830 yuan/ton to 2549 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants decreased by 500 to 9896 [8]. 3.3.2 Spread Data - The basis of Jiangsu - Lunan decreased from 555 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton, and the import spread increased from 7 yuan/ton to 216 yuan/ton. The spread between Jiangsu and Hebei decreased from 610 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the spread between China and Southeast Asia decreased from - 72 dollars/ton to - 80 dollars/ton [8]. 3.3.3 Operating Rate Data - The weighted average national operating rate decreased from 78.71% to 74.90%. The operating rates in East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest all decreased to 80.65%, 68.71%, 44.06%, and 81.54% respectively [8]. 3.3.4 Inventory Data - The inventory at East China ports increased from 58.19 tons to 62.00 tons, while the inventory at South China ports decreased from 39.34 tons to 37.43 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status 3.4.1 Domestic Plant Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance periods and loss volumes vary [59]. 3.4.2 Overseas Plant Conditions - Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally, with some under maintenance or having reduced loads [60]. 3.4.3 Olefin Plant Conditions - Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, while others are operating stably or with normal loads [61].