大越期货原油早报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed the largest - ever release of strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize soaring oil prices during the US - Israel and Iran war, but it awaits member approval. Both the US and Israel show a willingness to end the war, yet the conflict continues, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. If the suspension of shipping continues, oil prices may rise again. For SC2604, operate in the 630 - 650 range and wait for opportunities to short at high levels in the long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Crude Oil 2604 Analysis: - Fundamentals: The US and Israel launched a major air strike on Iran. The IEA's proposed release of oil reserves could exceed 182 million barrels in 2022. The US Navy cannot provide escort currently. Overall assessment is neutral [3]. - Basis: On March 10, Oman crude oil spot price was $115.28 per barrel, Qatar Marine crude oil spot price was $89.23 per barrel, with a basis of - $18.76 per barrel, indicating spot discount to futures, which is bearish [3]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 1.678 million barrels in the week ending March 6, contrary to the expected increase of 1.38 million barrels. EIA inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels in the week ending February 27, more than the expected increase of 2.305 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 1.564 million barrels in the week ending February 27. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory increased by 0.954 million barrels to 3.511 million barrels as of March 10, which is bullish [3]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average, which is bullish [3]. - Main Position: As of March 3, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased, which is neutral [3]. - Expectation: The IEA's plan needs member approval. The US and Israel show a willingness to end the war, but the conflict continues. If the suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues, oil prices may rise. For SC2604, operate in the 630 - 650 range and wait for long - term short - selling opportunities at high levels [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The IEA proposed the largest - ever release of strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize oil prices during the US - Israel and Iran war. The release scale will exceed 182 million barrels in 2022. Member countries will decide on Wednesday [5]. - Saudi Arabia has started to cut oil production due to the near - shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Other OPEC countries have also cut production before [5]. - US Energy Secretary Wright's post about successful escort of an oil tanker was later deleted. The US military has not provided escort for merchant ships currently [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Strait passage is blocked; the Middle East situation deteriorates [6]. - Bearish Factors: Trump intends to end the war quickly [6]. - Market Driver: In the short - term, focus on geopolitical changes; in the long - term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for a reversal [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: Brent crude oil settlement price dropped from $98.96 to $87.80, a decrease of 11.28%; WTI crude oil settlement price dropped from $94.77 to $83.45, a decrease of 11.94%; SC crude oil settlement price dropped from 746.6 to 732.4, a decrease of 1.90%; Oman crude oil settlement price dropped from $124.68 to $114.85, a decrease of 7.88% [7]. - Spot Market: UK Brent Dtd price dropped from $103.24 to $88.32, a decrease of 14.45%; WTI price dropped from $94.77 to $83.45, a decrease of 11.94%; Oman crude oil price dropped from $125.31 to $115.28, a decrease of 8.00%; Shengli crude oil price increased from $80.52 to $89.31, an increase of 10.92%; Dubai crude oil price increased from $100.55 to $115.59, an increase of 14.96% [9]. - Inventory Data: API inventory decreased by 1.678 million barrels in the week ending March 6; EIA inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels in the week ending February 27 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of March 3, the net long position was 172,150, a decrease of 562 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of March 3, the net long position was 285,594, a decrease of 35,358 [19].