大越期货豆粕早报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal (M2605): It is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040. Influenced by the upward trend of US soybeans and the intensification of the Middle - East conflict leading to short - term import restrictions, it has entered a short - term oscillatory and bullish pattern. However, factors such as the completion of China's US soybean procurement and good weather in South American soybean - producing areas will limit its upward space [9]. - Soybeans (A2605): It is expected to oscillate between 4720 and 4820. Affected by the upward trend of US soybeans and the reduction in the expected arrival of imported soybeans due to the escalation of the Middle - East conflict, it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The purchase of US soybeans by China supports the short - term US soybean market, but factors like the uncertainty of China's purchase volume and good weather in South American soybean - producing areas will suppress the upward space of US soybeans [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints No information provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's purchase volume of US soybeans and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is in a short - term bullish oscillation, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. With normal weather for soybean planting and growth in South America, soybean meal has returned to range oscillation in the short term [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal. The upward trend of US soybeans and the weak demand for soybean meal have a cross - impact [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possible weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, soybean meal is in a short - term oscillatory and bullish pattern, waiting for further clarity on the Middle - East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in March; the harvesting of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. - Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: Brazilian soybeans have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [15]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From March 2 to March 10, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3119 - 3327, and the transaction volume fluctuated between 2.97 - 24.83 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2350 - 2450, and the transaction volume was mostly low, with a maximum of 1.8 million tons [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From March 3 to March 10, the prices of soybean futures (including bean 1 and bean 2), soybean meal futures (including the main contract and far - month contract), and soybean and soybean meal spot prices all showed certain fluctuations [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From February 27 to March 10, the warehouse receipts of bean 1, bean 2, and soybean meal all changed to varying degrees [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the United States (2024), Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), and Argentina (2024/25, 2025/26) [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months: It shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, etc. of US soybeans from July 2025 to February 2026, as well as the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.