大越期货沥青期货早报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high. In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 25.0479%, a month - on - month increase of 1.977 percentage points. The refineries have increased production recently, which will increase the supply pressure next week [8]. - The overall demand for asphalt is weak. The current demand is lower than the historical average level. Although the开工 rate of various types of asphalt and related products has increased to varying degrees, they are still below the historical average [9]. - The cost support for asphalt is weakening in the short term. The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 337.86 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 22.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 168.4771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 59.94%. The processing loss of asphalt has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The asphalt 2606 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3682 - 3810 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.187 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 25.0479%, a month - on - month increase of 1.977 percentage points. The refineries have increased production, increasing the supply pressure [8]. - Demand Side: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The开工 rate of various types of asphalt and related products has increased to varying degrees but is still below the historical average [9]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 337.86 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 22.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 168.4771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 59.94%. The processing loss of asphalt has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Analysis of Other Factors: On March 10, the spot price in Shandong was 3720 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 10 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Social inventory, factory inventory, and port inventory are all increasing. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the price of the 06 contract is above the MA20. The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing [10]. - Market Expectation: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3682 - 3810 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures Closing Price and Spread: The report provides the closing prices, spreads, and changes of different asphalt futures contracts, including the 9 - 12, 6 - 12, 3 - 12, 6 - 9, 3 - 9, and 3 - 6 spreads, as well as the closing prices of various contracts from the 01 contract to the 12 contract [17]. - Warehouse Receipts and Basis: The report shows the number of registered warehouse receipts and the basis of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, including the current value, previous value, change, and change rate [17]. - Inventory, Production, and Shipment: The social inventory is 1.149 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.84%. The factory inventory is 788,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 850,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.39%. The production and shipment of sample enterprises have also changed to varying degrees [19]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [22][24]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [27]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [30]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026 [33][34]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 [37]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trend in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [40]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [43]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [47]. - Supply Side: - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [49]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [52]. - Production: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [55]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [60]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The report shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [62]. - 开工 Rate: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly开工 rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 [65]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss: The report shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 [68]. - Inventory: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [71]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026 [75]. - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report presents the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 [78]. - Import and Export Situation: - Export and Import Trends: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the import price spread of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [84]. - Demand Side: - Petroleum Coke Production: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2026 [87]. - Apparent Consumption: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [89]. - Downstream Demand: - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [92]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion: The report presents the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2026 [93]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2020 to 2026 [97][99]. - Asphalt开工 Rate: The report presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工 rate, asphalt开工 rate by use, and downstream开工 rate from 2019 to 2026 [101][103][105]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [109].