股指周报：地缘冲突拖累风险偏好下行，A股试探企稳-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk appetite declined rapidly due to geopolitical influence and then recovered during the domestic Two Sessions. The A-share market is testing for stabilization. [3] - For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, hold the bull spread portfolio constructed with put options. [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Indicators - Market Overview: This week, the four major index futures contracts declined with the index. IF and IH fell 1.32% and 1.75% respectively, while IC and IM fell 3.60% and 3.64% respectively. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 seats, the net short positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 7155, 402, 8025, and 3673 lots respectively. As of Friday, the optimal roll - over contracts for IF, IH, IC, and IM were the 2604 contracts, and the optimal annualized roll - over costs were 2.47%, 0.58%, 4.11%, and 5.42% respectively. [10] - A - share Performance: This week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index fell 1.07%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 1.54%, the CSI 500 Index fell 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 3.64%. [11] - Basis and Cross - variety Ratios: The basis of the four major index futures contracts oscillated neutrally, and the long - side strength weakened relatively. After March, it showed a downward trend due to dividend expectations. The current basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts were - 14.44, - 2.70, - 37.73, and - 37.06 points respectively. The futures contract ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of CSI 1000/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 decreased, and the value style was more stable during the decline. [12] - Industry Sector Performance: Most of the Wind primary industry indices declined this week, while the energy sector rose against the trend. The top - rising sectors included materials, energy, and public utilities, with increases of 8.03%, 6.31%, and 5.50% respectively. The top - falling sectors included communication services, finance, and daily consumption, with decreases of 3.20%, 1.10%, and 0.18% respectively. [15] - Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of the four major index futures significantly contracted. [16] - Spot - Futures Price Difference Trend: The basis oscillated and declined, and the seasonality gradually emerged. [21] - Inter - period Spread Trend: The report provides the inter - period spread trends of IF, IC, IH, and IM. [26][27][29] - Cross - variety Ratios: The risk appetite was under pressure, and the valuations of small - and medium - cap stocks declined relatively. [34] - Positions of the Top 20 Seats and Market Trends: The long - to - short ratios generally declined. [42] - Short - side Roll - over Costs: The annualized short - side roll - over cost of the next - month contract was the lowest. [50] 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamental Tracking - Domestic High - frequency Macroeconomic Tracking: In January, M1 and M2 increased by 4.9% and 9.0% year - on - year respectively, with the growth rates accelerating by 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the corporate sector's credit increased significantly year - on - year. [60] - Real Estate: From January to December 2025, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and national real - estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, with the decline still expanding. The land transactions in first - tier cities significantly rebounded, and the commercial housing transactions rebounded slightly at the beginning of 2026. [60][61][68] - Consumption: In January, consumer demand continued to recover. CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year - on - year. PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. [60] - Automobile Production and Sales: In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49% (previous value: 49.3%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5% (previous value: 49.4%). The steel tire operating rates continued to rise, while automobile sales declined in January. [60] - Foreign Trade: In December, China's exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 114.1 billion US dollars. The freight rate indices showed an upward trend. [60] 3.3 Liquidity Tracking - Liquidity Indicator Tracking: On March 6, the SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32%, unchanged from last week. The LPR remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. This week, the central bank conducted 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, and due to the maturity of 1525 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the net withdrawal for the whole week was 1247.4 billion yuan. This week, A - share funds had a cumulative net active sell - off of 406.796 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume of A - shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.62 trillion yuan, the margin trading balance decreased, the short - selling balance increased, and the net outflow of equity ETF funds was 4.6 billion yuan. [94]