聚酯周报：地缘带动短期聚酯系走势偏强，注意冲高回落风险-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors drive short - term strength in the polyester sector, but there is a risk of price pull - backs after surges [1] - PX: Supply expectations decline due to geopolitical impacts, and demand from downstream PTA improves, leading to a short - term upward trend, but attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics [6] - PTA: Although the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, there is an overall inventory accumulation expectation, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side [10] - MEG: The cost support is enhanced, and the supply is expected to decline, with prices likely to be strong in the short term [13] - Polyester: The load continues to rise, and inventory is reduced due to speculative stocking, but new orders need time to catch up [157][158][159] - Short - fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it fluctuates with raw materials [200] - Bottle - chip: Supply gradually increases, prices follow raw materials, and processing fees fluctuate [246] 3. Summary by Directory PX - Market Overview: Asian PX prices rose significantly, with the absolute price increasing by 15.8% week - on - week to $1079/ton CFR. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz strengthened the expectation of Asian refinery load reduction, driving up prices [28] - Supply: Asian and domestic PX operating rates declined. Domestic PX load dropped to 90.4% (- 2%), and Asian PX load dropped to 83.2% (- 1.7%). Some domestic and overseas refineries reduced their loads [29] - Demand: Downstream PTA load increased to 81% (+ 3.4%), with some devices restarting or increasing loads [5] - Valuation: Neutral. PXN first compressed and then recovered, from $295/ton to $251/ton and then back to around $304/ton [6] - Outlook: Supply is expected to decline, and demand is improving. Short - term prices are strong, but attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics [6] - Strategy: For single - side trading, beware of the risk of price pull - backs after surges and do not chase long positions. For arbitrage, wait and see [7] PTA - Market Overview: PTA prices rose significantly, with the weekly average spot price increasing by 7.5%. The futures price hit the daily limit on Thursday, and the spot price followed. The basis strengthened [80] - Supply: Domestic PTA load increased to 81% (+ 3.4%), with some devices restarting or increasing loads and some in maintenance [81] - Demand: Polyester load increased to 84.1% (+ 4.6%), and the downstream demand was gradually recovering [9] - Valuation: Neutral - low. The spot processing fee was around 242 yuan/ton, and the TA2605 and TA2609 disk processing fees were 391 yuan/ton and 449 yuan/ton respectively [10] - Outlook: Although the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, there is an overall inventory accumulation expectation. The absolute price fluctuates with the cost side [10] - Strategy: For single - side trading, beware of the risk of price pull - backs after surges and do not chase long positions. For arbitrage, wait and see [10][11] MEG - Market Overview: The domestic and foreign prices of MEG rose. The basis first rose and then fell, and the 5 - 9 spread increased significantly [115][116] - Supply: The average comprehensive operating rate of MEG was 74.14%, and the coal - based operating rate was 83.03%. Some devices were in maintenance or reduced loads, and port inventory continued to accumulate to 100.2 tons [115][126] - Demand: The polyester load increased seasonally, and the demand for MEG is expected to increase [13] - Valuation: The oil - based profit of MEG decreased significantly, and the coal - based profit increased. The EO - EG spread first decreased and then increased [116] - Outlook: The cost support is enhanced, and the supply is expected to decline. The price is likely to be strong in the short term, with inventory reduction expected in March and continued inventory reduction in April - May [13][147] - Strategy: For single - side trading, wait and see. For inter - period trading, go long on the EG5 - 9 spread when the price is low. For options, lightly buy EG2605 call options [14] Polyester - Supply: The polyester load increased to 84.1% (+ 4.6%), with some devices restarting and some in maintenance [157] - Inventory: The inventory of polyester filament factories decreased, with POY, FDY, and DTY equity inventories at 14 (- 6.1), 20.1 (- 4.5), and 25.3 (- 9.3) days respectively [158] - Demand: The downstream demand was gradually recovering, but new orders were slow to follow up. The terminal speculative stocking increased [159] - Outlook: The load continues to rise, and inventory is reduced due to speculative stocking, but new orders need time to catch up [157][158][159] - Strategy: No specific strategy is provided in the report Short - fiber - Supply: The operating rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased to 84.6% (+ 10.2%) [203] - Inventory: The factory inventory decreased, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 10.2 days (- 2.1) and the physical inventory at 17.2 days (- 3.2) [204] - Demand: The load of downstream pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn increased, but the cash - flow was in a loss [205] - Valuation: The processing fee was compressed, with the spot processing fee at around 944 yuan/ton and the PF2604 and PF2605 disk processing fees at 883 yuan/ton and 865 yuan/ton respectively [206] - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it fluctuates with raw materials [200] - Strategy: For single - side trading, the PF04 is the same as PTA. For arbitrage, the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 yuan/ton [20] Bottle - chip - Supply: The production of polyester bottle - chips increased to 31.68 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.42% (+ 1.14 percentage points) [248] - Inventory: The factory inventory decreased, with the physical inventory days at 15.03 days (- 1.52 days) [248] - Demand: The downstream demand was gradually recovering, with the soft - drink industry operating at 70 - 80% and the oil refinery at around 58%, and the PET sheet industry at 50 - 60% [248] - Valuation: The profit decreased slightly, with the average spot processing fee at 570.29 yuan/ton (- 24 yuan/ton) [248] - Outlook: Supply gradually increases, prices follow raw materials, and processing fees fluctuate [246] - Strategy: For single - side trading, the PR is the same as PTA. The PR main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton. Hold call - option buyers [25]