工业硅期货早报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, with a supply of 72,000 tons and a 4.35% week - on - week increase. Demand also rose, reaching 65,000 tons with a 6.56% week - on - week growth. The cost support in the Xinjiang region increased during the dry season. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8,535 and 8,715 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply decreased last week, with a production of 18,800 tons and a 5.05% week - on - week decrease, but the March production plan is expected to increase. The demand shows a complex situation with different trends in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. The cost support is strengthening. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 41,425 and 43,475 [9]. - The main logic of the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' production cut plans, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the oversupply of downstream polysilicon [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 72,000 tons, a 4.35% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Demand was 65,000 tons, a 6.56% week - on - week increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers are in a loss state, battery cells and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 3,134 yuan/ton and a comprehensive utilization rate of 65.4%. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - permeable 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The cost support during the dry season has increased [6]. - Basis: On March 10, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 575 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 553,000 tons, a 1.25% week - on - week decrease; sample enterprise inventory is 195,900 tons, a 3.30% week - on - week decrease; main port inventory is 135,000 tons, a 2.17% week - on - week decrease [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract is above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [6]. - Expectation: The supply production plan is increasing but remains at a low level, demand recovery is emerging, and cost support is increasing. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8,535 and 8,715 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 18,800 tons, a 5.05% week - on - week decrease. The March production plan is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% month - on - month increase [9]. - Demand: Silicon wafer production last week was 11.08GW, a 2.37% week - on - week decrease, and inventory was 290,100 tons, a 6.60% week - on - week decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell production in February was 37.09GW, a 10.49% month - on - month decrease, and the inventory of external sales factories last week was 6.98GW, a 19.95% week - on - week decrease. Currently, battery cell production is profitable. Component production in February was 29.3GW, a 16.76% month - on - month decrease, and the expected production in March is 41.39GW, a 41.26% month - on - month increase. The domestic monthly inventory decreased by 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory increased by 12.30%. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 40,720 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 6,280 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On March 10, the price of N - type dense material was 47,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 6,400 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 348,000 tons, a 1.16% week - on - week increase, at a high level in the same period [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract is below the MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [9]. - Expectation: The supply production plan will increase in the short term and is expected to adjust in the medium term. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components will increase in the short term and is expected to adjust in the medium term. Overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support is strengthening. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 41,425 and 43,475 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 03 contract having the largest decline of 2.17%. The prices of some spot products remained stable, and the social inventory decreased by 1.25% week - on - week [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of some contracts decreased, and the weekly total inventory increased by 1.16% week - on - week. The export volume of Chinese polysilicon decreased by 50.00% month - on - month, and the consumption decreased by 18.39% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - Industrial Silicon: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends are presented through charts, showing the historical price changes of industrial silicon [18]. - Polysilicon: The disk price trend and the basis trend of the main contract are presented through charts, showing the price changes of polysilicon [21]. 3.4 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - Industrial Silicon: The inventory situation of industrial silicon includes the inventory of delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises. The production and capacity utilization trends show the production changes of sample enterprises and the monthly production by specifications [24][28]. - Polysilicon: The total inventory of polysilicon shows an upward trend, and the monthly production and demand trends are presented [66]. 3.5 Downstream Market 3.5.1 Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends are presented, including the daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trend, and weekly production trend of DMC. The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are also presented [47][49]. 3.5.2 Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy are presented, including the price trend of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, the import cost - profit trend, the monthly production trend of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, and the inventory trend of aluminum alloy ingots [55][58]. 3.5.3 Polysilicon Downstream - Silicon Wafers: The price, production, inventory, and demand trends of silicon wafers are presented, including the price trend of N - type silicon wafers, the weekly production and inventory trends, and the monthly demand trend [71]. - Battery Cells: The price, production, inventory, and export trends of battery cells are presented, including the price trend of single - crystal P/N type battery cells, the production and inventory trends of photovoltaic battery cells, and the export trend [77]. - Photovoltaic Components: The price, inventory, production, and export trends of photovoltaic components are presented, including the price trend of components, the inventory trends in China and Europe, the monthly production trend, and the export trend [80]. - Photovoltaic Accessories: The price, production, and import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories are presented, including the price trend of photovoltaic coating, the import - export trends of photovoltaic film and glass, and the price trend of high - purity quartz sand [83]. - Component Composition Cost and Profit: The cost and profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components are presented, including the cost trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, as well as the profit trends [86]. - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation: The trends of national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition, and photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity are presented [88].