大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend last week, with a production of 22,590 tons, a 3.51% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The demand - side saw an increase in the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. The cost side had different profit situations for different raw materials, with the salt - lake end having sufficient profit margins and high production motivation, while other sources had losses. The 05 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 154,360 - 166,120 [8]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main bullish factors are the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. The main bearish factor is the continuously high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline [9][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Supply increased last week, demand - side inventory rose, and cost - side profitability varied. The 05 contract basis was - 4,500 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Inventory was generally lower than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20. The main positions were net short with a reduction in short positions. In the future, supply is expected to increase, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 154,360 - 166,120 [8]. - Bullish Factors: Production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and a month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile [9]. - Bearish Factors: Continuously high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline [10]. - Main Logic: Emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [11]. 3.2 Market Overview of Lithium Carbonate - Upstream Prices: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium salts showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of 6% lithium spodumene increased by 1.98% to 2,213 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.42% to 158,500 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate production decreased, and the monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in February 2026 was 83,090 tons, a 15.13% decrease from the previous month [17]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly production, export, and inventory of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 12.20% to 348,200 tons [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore showed a certain trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines also changed over time. The import volume of lithium concentrate also had fluctuations, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore was presented [24]. - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore was analyzed, showing the situation of demand, production, import, export, and balance in different months [27][28]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production, operating rate, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) were presented. The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries was also shown [31][33]. - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate was analyzed, including demand, production, import, export, and balance in different months [39]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, and production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) were presented. The export volume of lithium hydroxide was also shown [41]. - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide was analyzed, including demand, production, import, export, and balance in different months [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Lithium Compounds: The cost and profit of lithium compounds such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled lithium were analyzed, including the production cost, profit, and processing cost composition [48][51][54]. 3.7 Inventory - Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including the inventory of smelters, downstream, and other sources, was presented [57]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - Battery Price, Production, and Shipment: The price, production, and shipment of power batteries such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials were presented, as well as the monthly battery loading volume [59]. 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - Energy Storage Battery Inventory, Bidding, and Production: The inventory, bidding, and production of energy storage batteries were presented, including the inventory of different types of energy storage batteries, the EPC bidding price, and the monthly production of energy storage cells [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors were presented, including the price of different types of ternary precursors, the cost and profit of raw material procurement, and the monthly production [64]. - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors was analyzed, including demand, production, import, export, and balance in different months [67]. 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials were presented, including the price of different types of ternary materials, the cost and profit, and the monthly production [70]. - Inventory and Trade: The inventory, import, and export of ternary materials were presented [72]. 3.12 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium were presented, including the price of different types of iron phosphate lithium, the production cost of iron phosphate, and the monthly production [74]. - Inventory and Export: The inventory and export of iron phosphate lithium were presented [77]. 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate: The production, sales, export, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles were presented, including the production of plug - in hybrid and pure - electric vehicles, the sales volume, and the sales penetration rate [82][83]. - Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers were presented [86].