软商品日报-20260311

Group 1: Sugar Core View - The sugar market currently lacks a clear basis for a trend reversal. The core contradiction remains that the valuation is low, but there is a lack of continuous upward drivers [3]. Key Points - Futures Prices and Spreads: On March 11, 2026, SR01 closed at 5569 with a daily increase of 0.23% and a weekly increase of 2.28%. SR05 closed at 5423 with a daily increase of 0.26% and a weekly increase of 2.17%. SR09 closed at 5448 with a daily increase of 0.31% and a weekly increase of 2.39%. The SR01 - 05 spread was 147, up 26 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [4]. - Basis: On March 10, 2026, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was -36, up 1 from the previous day and 72 from the previous week. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was -181, up 1 from the previous day and 52 from the previous week [11]. - Import Prices: On March 11, 2026, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4164, up 109 from the previous day and 267 from the previous week. The out - of - quota price was 5279, up 143 from the previous day and 348 from the previous week [14]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - The current expectation of tight domestic supply and demand still strongly supports cotton prices, making them prone to rise and hard to fall. However, the high spread between domestic and foreign cotton prices exerts pressure on the upside of cotton prices. Attention should be paid to whether Zhengzhou cotton can stabilize around the 15,500 platform, as well as the progress of the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran and changes in US foreign trade policies [16]. Key Points - Futures Prices and Spreads: On March 11, 2026, cotton 01 closed at 15775, up 70 (0.45%); cotton 05 closed at 15515, up 195 (1.27%); cotton 09 closed at 15530, up 150 (0.98%). The cotton basis was 1312, down 35 from the previous day. The cotton 01 - 05 spread was 385, up 15 from the previous day [17]. Group 3: Apple Core View - The current apple futures market is running strongly, driven by both fundamental and delivery logic. The shortage of delivery products for the 05 contract is prominent, providing strong short - term support for the market, and there is no obvious bearish pressure, maintaining a strong and volatile pattern [22]. Key Points - Futures and Spot Prices: On March 11, 2026, AP01 closed at 8560 with a daily increase of 0.11% and a weekly decrease of 0.42%. AP05 closed at 10236 with a daily decrease of 0.65% and a weekly decrease of 2.04%. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4, with no daily or weekly change [23]. - Spreads and Basis: The AP01 - 05 spread was -1752, up 2.22% from the previous day and down 0.17% from the previous week. The main contract basis was -515, down 14.45% from the previous day and 34.23% from the previous week [23]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View - As the new planting season has not yet arrived, the market focus is still on the demand side. After the Spring Festival, downstream sales are mediocre, and restocking is light. In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, market funds flow, and risk - aversion sentiment increases. However, the driving force for red dates is currently limited. Under the overall loose domestic supply - demand situation, there is still pressure on the upside of red date prices, and they may maintain a low - level oscillation [29]. Key Points - Futures Spreads: The red date futures 01 - 05 spread shows historical data from 2023 - 2025, and the 05 - 09 spread shows data from 2023 - 2026 [30]. - Warehouse Receipts: The sum of red date warehouse receipts and valid forecasts shows data from 2023 - 2026 [32].