瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand, with the downstream resumption of work driving continuous inventory reduction in the industry. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 155,040 yuan/ton, down 7,960 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 106,116 hands, up 2,231 hands; the position of the main contract is 330,436 hands, down 2,081 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 360 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 36,739 hands/ton, down 280 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 155,750 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 3,960 yuan/ton, up 8,460 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,505 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 14,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 7,175 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,520 tons, down 5,950 tons; the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate is 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate is 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 5%; the monthly output of power batteries is 168,000 MWh, down 33,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 51,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 111,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 202,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 181,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 196,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 45%, down 5%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 55%, up 1%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,041,000 vehicles, down 677,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 945,000 vehicles, down 765,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 40.28%, down 7.65%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year is 945,000 vehicles, up 1,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, up 2,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year is 302,000 vehicles, up 152,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 80.96%, down 6.26%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 97.50%, down 0.03%; the total call position is 105,908 contracts, up 3,645; the total put position is 97,762 contracts, up 2,264; the put - call ratio of the total position is 92.31%, down 1.0763%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.75%, down 0.0217% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Ningde Times believes that Zimbabwe's policy of restricting lithium ore exports may be to promote the localization of its industrial chain. The impact on global supply and demand is limited, and the company's supply chain layout is sound [2] - Fulin Jinggong's subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua has a production capacity of 300,000 tons of high - compaction - density lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and is promoting the construction of new production capacities [2] - In the first two months of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3% [2] - NIO achieved its first quarterly profit in Q4 2025, and expects the delivery volume in Q1 this year to reach 80,000 - 83,000 vehicles, with revenue expected to double year - on - year [2]