2月环球经济与大类资产配置观察：“沃什交易”、AI担忧、中东局势叠加扰动市场

Market Overview - In February 2026, major asset classes experienced declines due to concerns over the new Fed chair's "balance sheet reduction" policy, geopolitical tensions, and AI-related worries, particularly affecting precious metals[4] - The South Korean stock market outperformed with a gain of 19.5%, followed by Japan's Nikkei 225 at +10.4% and European indices such as the FTSE 100 (+6.7%) and CAC40 (+5.6%) [5] Fund Flows - Global stock and bond markets saw increased net inflows, with emerging markets attracting more capital than developed markets; passive funds were a significant driver of this trend[6] - In February, U.S. stock markets had a net inflow of $13.38 billion, while European stocks saw a substantial increase in net inflows to $36.9 billion, up from $23.06 billion the previous month[12] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy showed signs of "stagflation" with a Q4 2025 GDP growth rate of 1.4%, significantly below the expected 2.8%[14] - Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February, indicating a recovery, while inflation rates showed a decrease to 1.7%[14] Policy Developments - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against certain tariffs, leading to a temporary 10% global import tariff imposed by the Trump administration, which may affect trade agreements[15] - The European Central Bank maintained its interest rates, while Japan's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative despite rising inflation concerns[18] Commodity Trends - Gold prices fluctuated significantly, reaching over $5,300 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. monetary policy expectations[23] - Brent crude oil prices rose to nearly $80 per barrel amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and Iran[23]