天然橡胶产业日报-20260311

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber产区 has entered the seasonal supply off - season, with firm raw material prices. The bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port continue to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses are destocking, and the total inventory has a slight increase in accumulation. The arrival of US - dollar - denominated standard rubber is showing a decreasing trend. The synthetic rubber is strengthening, and after the Spring Festival, tire enterprises resume production, increasing the buying of natural rubber, and the inventory accumulation rate has significantly narrowed compared to the previous period [2]. - The domestic tire enterprise operating rate has significantly rebounded week - on - week, and most enterprises have returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the short - term situation is unstable, and the order shipment resistance in the Middle East still exists, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2]. - The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,850 - 17,500 in the short term, and the NR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 17,180 yuan/ton, and that of the 20 - number rubber is 13,720 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, and the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber is 110 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 143,610 lots, a decrease of 3,973 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 67,414 lots, a decrease of 41,472 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is 1,284 lots, and that of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is 1,049 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 120,540 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 49,795 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 17,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,050 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,045 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 17,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 13.6 US dollars/ton, and that of STR20 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 17 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 3.05 million tons, and that of mixed rubber is 19.93 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 36.73%, and that of semi - steel tires is 65.9%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.79 days, a decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 43.1 days, a decrease of 0.99 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 5,968,000 pieces, an increase of 129,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 1,271,000 pieces, a decrease of 15,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is - 0.24%, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.82%, a decrease of 0.31%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is - 1.42%, and that of at - the - money put options is 31.03%, a decrease of 1.42% [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decrease in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month [2]. - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, an increase of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory is 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%; the general trade inventory is 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao for natural rubber decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points [2]. - As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.33 percentage points [2].