Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas have entered the seasonal supply off - season, with firm raw material prices. Recently, the bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port have continued to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses have reduced inventory, and the total inventory has slightly increased. Overseas has entered the seasonal low - production season, the arrival of US - dollar - denominated standard rubber has shown a decreasing trend. The synthetic rubber has strengthened due to the continuous tension in the Middle East situation. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises have resumed production, leading to an increase in natural rubber buying, and the inventory accumulation rate at Qingdao Port warehouses has significantly narrowed compared to the previous period. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has rebounded significantly week - on - week, and most enterprises have returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the short - term situation is unstable, and there are still obstacles to order shipments in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,850 - 17,500 in the short - term, and the NR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short - term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 17,180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 65 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,720 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 110 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 195 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,460 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 143,610 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,973 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 67,414 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,665 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 41,472 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,284 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,072 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,049 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 120,540 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 49,795 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 17,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 2,050 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 2,045 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,870 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,820 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2,500 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 15,200 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 185 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,245 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,038 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 68 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 318 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber flakes was 71.89 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber sheets was 67.85 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 69.8 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup glue was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 17 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, with an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, with an increase of 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.9%, with a week - on - week increase of 36.73 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.03%, with a week - on - week increase of 39.47 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 45.79 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 43.1 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.99 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.82%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.63%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.03%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.03%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month. As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 500 tons, with a growth rate of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, with a growth rate of 1.27%; the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, with a decline rate of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points. The bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port continued to accumulate inventory, the general trade warehouses reduced inventory, and the total inventory slightly increased. As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a week - on - week increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a week - on - week increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.33 percentage points. Most enterprises have returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises [2]. Suggested Attention - The operating rate of Longzhong's tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260311
Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-11 11:39