建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of the geopolitical situation has become the core variable in the market. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the driving logic of polyolefins will gradually shift from single - cost support to a dual - push model of "cost increase and substantial contraction of supply". In the short term, the reality of upstream raw material supply disruptions, plant production cuts, and controlled sales will continue to support high prices. However, the subsequent evolution of the market will highly depend on the situation in the Middle East. If the blockade lasts longer than expected, the supply - side drive will strengthen, and an expanded scope of production cuts may trigger a new round of price increases. If the situation cools down, as the supply recovers and the risk - aversion sentiment fades, the previous price increases will face correction pressure [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - On March 11, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 840,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase (5.00%) from the previous working day, compared with 835,000 tons in the same period last year [5] - The PE market prices showed mixed trends. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 7,600 - 8,600 yuan/ton, in East China 7,900 - 8,200 yuan/ton, and in South China 8,150 - 8,850 yuan/ton [5] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily around 8,300 - 8,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 475 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to the cost pressure on downstream factories, the procurement enthusiasm for propylene decreased, leading to an overall decline in propylene demand. Production enterprises continued to offer price concessions, and the overall trading situation was poor [5] - The PP market showed signs of recovery. The mainstream prices of drawn - wire PP in North China were in the range of 7,800 - 8,100 yuan/ton, in East China 7,800 - 8,100 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,950 - 8,500 yuan/ton [5] - The futures market: L2605 opened lower and then fluctuated upward, closing at 8,154 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan/ton (2.18%), with a trading volume of 1.02 million lots and an increase of 9,286 lots in open interest to 322,673 lots; PP2605 closed at 8,197 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan (2.07%), with an increase of 57,892 lots in open interest to 421,712 lots [3][5] 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][14][16]