纯碱、玻璃日报-20260312

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Soda ash: In the short term, the soda ash futures market is highly volatile. If it can hold above 1,200 points and break through further, the upside range will be opened. In the medium to long term, due to weak fundamentals, the soda ash market still faces downward price pressure. The market deadlock needs to wait for the supply - side to start real capacity clearance [8][9]. - Glass: The contradiction between "strong expectation" and "weak reality" in the glass market remains unresolved. In the short term, the report on real estate in important meetings has repaired the demand expectation. In the medium to long term, to open up the upside space, attention should be paid to changes in commercial housing sales data. Currently, it is possible to try short - term long positions, but the space is limited [10]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On March 11, the main soda ash futures contract SA605 fluctuated upwards, closing at 1,255 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.80%, with a daily reduction of 830 lots. The supply is still in a state of oversupply, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. Although the market's demand expectation has been repaired, the short - term high - volatility state of the soda ash market cannot be supported for a long time. The long - term price depends on its own supply - demand relationship [7][8][9]. Glass - The glass market is facing the contradiction between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The upper limit of the glass futures price is restricted by high inventory and pending production capacity, while the lower limit is supported by possible production line cold - repairs due to industry losses. The short - term demand expectation has been repaired, but the upside space in the medium to long term depends on commercial housing sales data. Currently, short - term long positions can be tried, but attention should be paid to risk prevention [10]. Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [12][13][18]