建信期货集运指数日报-20260312

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The freight index futures fluctuated greatly due to the rapid change in the Middle - East situation. The market recovered today, possibly affected by the potential continuous impact of mine - laying in the Strait of Hormuz on navigation. Although the suspension of the Middle - East route may lead to an overflow of shipping capacity to other routes, the impact is limited, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply of shipping capacity on the European route remains unchanged. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may cause the index to strengthen periodically but is also prone to significant corrections. Attention should be paid to the convergence of spot and futures prices in the second half of March when approaching delivery, and there are opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation: The freight index futures fluctuated greatly due to the Middle - East situation. The market recovered today, possibly affected by the potential continuous impact of mine - laying in the Strait of Hormuz on navigation. After the Spring Festival, it is still the off - season for transportation. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The shipping capacity supply in March and April is still at a high level in the same period of history. Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not affect the European route, the Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, which can continue to digest the shipping capacity pressure [7] - Spot Price: Leading shipping companies announced price increases in early February, but the prices in early March still mainly follow the late - February prices. The price increase in the off - season may be more for price stabilization and difficult to be actually implemented. Attention should be paid to the actual cargo - booking situation later [7] - Operation Suggestion: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may cause the index to strengthen periodically but is also prone to significant corrections. Attention should be paid to the convergence of spot and futures prices in the second half of March when approaching delivery, and there are opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7] 2. Industry News - Overall Market: The China Export Container Transport Market was affected by the sharp escalation of the geopolitical situation. The transport market faced challenges, the freight rates of relevant routes fluctuated sharply, and the comprehensive index rose. On March 6, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1489.19 points, a 11.7% increase from the previous period [8] - European Route: The eurozone's unemployment rate in January fell slightly to 6.1%, indicating a stable economic growth. However, the uncertainty has increased significantly recently. The war in the Middle - East has pushed up energy prices, and the US tariff policy is undecided. The European economy still faces many uncertainties. The transport market on the Asia - Europe route was basically stable this week, with flat demand and a slight increase in freight rates. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1452/TEU, a 2.3% increase from the previous period [8][9] - Mediterranean Route: The market situation was basically the same as that of the European route, and the spot - market booking prices continued to rise. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2360/TEU, a 2.4% increase from the previous period [9] - North American Route: The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, better than market expectations. The employment market showed signs of stabilization. The US military operations in the Middle - East pushed up energy prices, which may lead to increased inflation pressure. The transport demand was weak this week, and the freight rates continued to rise. On March 6, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1940/FEU and $2717/FEU respectively, with increases of 4.5% and 1.0% from the previous period [9] - Other News: Trump said the war with Iran might end soon. The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was increasing, and he considered taking over the strait. Affected by this news, US oil prices plunged. The G7 finance ministers held a phone meeting to discuss how to deal with the soaring oil prices. They basically reached a consensus not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Goldman Sachs estimated that European natural gas prices might rise by 130% and oil prices by $18 per barrel. The US Supreme Court ruled that some US tariffs were illegal, and China urged the US to cancel them [9] 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: On March 9, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1545.46 points, an 82.06 - point increase (5.6%) from March 2; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1121.22 points, a 76.14 - point increase (7.3%) from March 2 [11] - Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Quotes: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2604, EC2605, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: The report includes charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][19]