建信期货国债日报-20260312

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bond and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - Due to profit - taking and inflation concerns, the bond market sentiment remained weak [8] - Most yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising less than 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year active bond 250016 reaching 1.8125%, up 0.5bp [9] - With continuous open - market withdrawals, the inter - bank liquidity tightened marginally. The net withdrawal of reverse repurchase in the open market was 14 billion yuan today. The tax - payment deadline on March 11 would increase the tax - period disturbance. The overnight DR rate in the inter - bank deposit market rose 4.5bp to around 1.37%, and the 7 - day fund rate rose 2.4bp to around 1.46%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuating narrowly between 1.56% and 1.58% [10] - In terms of fundamentals, the PMI in February was affected by the Spring Festival and weakened. Although the post - holiday high - frequency economic indicators showed a fast resumption of production, and overseas export demand was still strong, the implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" might boost the real - estate market in the "Golden March" season. The economy in the first quarter might continue to perform well, which dampened the market's easing expectations. The unclear situation between the US and Iran in the short term boosted the demand for safe - haven assets, but the sharp rise in oil prices also led to an increase in inflation expectations. The significant fluctuations in the financial market also brought liquidity shocks. The report suggested paying attention to the upcoming economic data for January - February [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation: The bond market sentiment was weak due to profit - taking and inflation concerns [8] - Interest - rate Bonds: Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly rose slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising less than 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year active bond 250016 reaching 1.8125%, up 0.5bp [9] - Funding Market: With continuous open - market withdrawals, the inter - bank liquidity tightened marginally. The net withdrawal of reverse repurchase in the open market was 14 billion yuan. The tax - payment deadline on March 11 would increase the tax - period disturbance. The overnight DR rate in the inter - bank deposit market rose 4.5bp to around 1.37%, and the 7 - day fund rate rose 2.4bp to around 1.46%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuating narrowly between 1.56% and 1.58% [10] - Conclusion: The economy in the first quarter might continue to perform well, dampening the market's easing expectations. The short - term situation between the US and Iran was unclear, bringing both safe - haven demand and inflation expectations. The financial market fluctuations also brought liquidity shocks. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data for January - February [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference successfully concluded on the morning of the 11th, passing several important resolutions [13] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves to stabilize the soaring oil prices during the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. The release volume would exceed the 182 million barrels of oil released by IEA member countries in two batches during the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. The proposal was distributed at an emergency meeting of energy officials from 32 IEA member countries on Tuesday, and countries were expected to make a decision on Wednesday. The G7 supported the use of strategic reserves to address the oil supply shortage and market fluctuations caused by the Iran war [13] - In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate returning to double - digits at 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, up 19.2% year - on - year; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1% year - on - year; and the trade surplus was 1.50349 trillion yuan. China's trade value with ASEAN was 1.24 trillion yuan, up 20.3%; with the EU was 998.94 billion yuan, up 19.9%; and with the US was 609.71 billion yuan, down 16.9% [14] - China's government debt structure has been changing, with the central government taking on more responsibility in new debt issuance to relieve local fiscal pressure. In 2026, China plans to issue 1.189 trillion yuan in new government debt, of which the central government will issue 669 billion yuan in Treasury bonds, accounting for about 56.3% of the total new government debt, and local governments will issue 520 billion yuan in local government bonds, accounting for about 43.7% [14] - China's CPI in February rose 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, higher than the expected 0.9% and the previous value of 0.2%. The average CPI from January to February rose 0.8% year - on - year. China's PPI in February fell 0.9% year - on - year, better than the expected 1.2% decline and the previous value of 1.4% decline. Affected by the Spring Festival, the CPI rose 1.0% month - on - month and 1.3% year - on - year in February, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.8% year - on - year. Affected by factors such as the rise in international commodity prices, the rapid growth of domestic demand in some industries, and the continuous effectiveness of macro - policies, the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing continuously [15] 4.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides trading data of Treasury bond futures on March 11, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] - Money Market: The report presents data on the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the change in the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [30][34] - Derivatives Market: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [36]