铝日报-20260312

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The aluminum price has an independent trend due to the uncertainty in the Middle East situation and potential threats to the overseas aluminum supply chain. The price opened higher and closed higher on the 11th, returning above 25,000 yuan/ton, with total positions increasing by 26,000 to 688,000. High prices suppress consumption, and the procurement demand is weak. The domestic supply is stable, and the demand is warming up after the festival, but inventory accumulation continues. The current aluminum price is mainly affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and a low - buying strategy is recommended before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [8] Group 4: Market Conditions and Operation Suggestions - Price and Position: The aluminum price opened higher and closed higher on the 11th, returning above 25,000 yuan/ton, and the total positions increased by 26,000 to 688,000 [8] - Consumption: High aluminum prices suppress consumption, with weak procurement demand. The East China discount is - 130, the Central Plains discount is - 270, and the South China discount is - 205 [8] - Import and Export: The Shanghai - London ratio is low, and the import loss is - 3,368 yuan/ton [8] - Supply: Domestic supply is stable. Newly - invested capacities in Indonesia and Angola are still ramping up. In the Middle East, Qatar Aluminum has stopped production, and Bahrain Aluminum has suspended supply [8] - Demand and Inventory: After the festival, demand is warming up, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased significantly. However, inventory accumulation continues. Domestic social inventory has increased to 1.271 million tons, at a high level in the past three years, while the London inventory has decreased by more than 2,000 tons to 452,000 tons, highlighting the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [8] - Operation Suggestion: Keep a low - buying strategy before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [8] Group 5: Industry News - Force Reduction by Rio Tinto: Rio Tinto will cut the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% from October 2026 to extend its operation life to 2035. This will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs [9] - Expansion by Nalco: India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, increasing the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10]